Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
– MIA-BKN UNDER 210.5
DK Betting Splits/Scheduling Situation/Head-to-Head trends all favor Under
– TOR-OKC OVER 231.5
Scheduling Situation and recent Head-to-Head trends favor Over
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 120-122 SU but 126-101-5 ATS (55.5%), including 89-53-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 vs. PHI)
* UTAH is on a 45-24 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 233)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, PHOENIX
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – OKLAHOMA CITY ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, CLEVELAND ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-ATL, UTA-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BKN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 37-25 SU and 37-22-3 ATS (62.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
2/7: BROOKLYN vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6 vs. MIA)
* Under the total was 115-94-1 (55%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/7: Under the total in BROOKLYN-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-BKN (o/u at 210.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 33-85 SU and 46-68-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/7: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs. SAS)
* MIAMI is on a 19-13 SU and 21-10-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
2/7: MIAMI at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-6 at BKN)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 44-43 SU and 31-55-1 ATS skid in the last 87 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/7: Fade MILWAUKEE at Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at ATL)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 22-3 SU and 20-5 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
2/7: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19 vs. TOR)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-30 SU and 44-25-1 ATS in its last 70 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/7: PHILADELPHIA at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is on a 16-6 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/7: Under the total in DETROIT-PHILADELPHIA
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-DET (o/u at 226.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-11 Over the total in its last 34 3rd Straight Home games
2/7: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-TORONTO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-OKC (o/u at 231.5)
* UTAH is on a 45-24 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
2/7: Over the total in UTAH-PHOENIX
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 233)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 225-42 SU but just 126-136-5 ATS (48.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 at CHA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-19 vs. TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 191-161 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 254-196 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-CHA (o/u at 228.5), CLE-WSH (o/u at 235.5), TOR-OKC (o/u at 231.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 228-129 SU, but 162-188-7 ATS (46.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19 vs. TOR)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 144-87 SU but 103-124-4 ATS (45.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 88-110 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-9 vs. UTA)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 120-122 SU but 126-101-5 ATS (55.5%), including 89-53-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 vs. PHI)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 259-137 SU but just 170-214-12 ATS (44.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-10.5 at CHA), CLEVELAND (-17.5 at WSH)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 281-219 SU but 220-266-14 ATS (45.3%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 39-66 ATS.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs. CLE)
Unusual shooting performance systems
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 297-275 SU but 256-299-15 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17.5 vs. CLE)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BROOKLYN +6 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -4 (+1.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -19 (+0.6)
3. PHOENIX -8.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+0.6)
2. BROOKLYN +6 (+0.5)
3. ATLANTA +5.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -17.5 (+3.2)
2. PHILADELPHIA -4 (+1.4)
3. PHOENIX -8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-ATL OVER 243 (+1.8)
2. CLE-WSH OVER 236 (+1.1)
3. UTA-PHX OVER 233 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-4.5)
2(tie). PHI-DET UNDER 227.5 (-2.3)
TOR-OKC UNDER 231.5 (-2.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+1.2)
2. BROOKLYN +6 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX -8.5 (+2.6)
2. CLEVELAND -17.5 (+1.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -19 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-WSH OVER 236 (+1.8)
2. MIL-ATL OVER 243 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-DET UNDER 227.5 (-5.7)
2. SAS-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-5.0)
3. UTA-PHX UNDER 233 (-2.7)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(503) CLEVELAND at (504) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 12-4 in the last 16 of the CLE-WSH series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(507) MIAMI at (508) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the MIA-BKN series at Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(509) PHILADELPHIA at (510) DETROIT
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games versus Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(511) TORONTO at (512) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the TOR-OKC non-conference series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
