Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs have won nine straight ATS in the GSW-IND nonconference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+8 at IND)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 38-40 SU and 27-50-1 (35.1%) ATS skid in the last 78 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at ORL)
* WASHINGTON is on 10-10 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at CHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, INDIANA ML, BOSTON ML, CHICAGO ML, DENVER ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ORL, BKN-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ORL, BKN-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 110-83-1 (57%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/10: Under the total in DENVER-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-DEN (o/u at 219)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 38-40 SU and27-50-1 ATS skid in L78 when playing on standard OneDayRest
1/10: Fade MILWAUKEE at Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at ORL)
* WASHINGTON is on 10-10 SU and14-5 ATS run on the ROAD in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/10: WASHINGTON at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at CHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 197-37 SU but just 109-121-4 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-11 vs. SAC), DENVER (-15 vs. BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 172-147 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 243-190 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-BOS (o/u at 229.5), WSH-CHI (o/u at 242.5), BKN-DEN (o/u at 219)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (180-196 ATS, 47.8%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (242-240 ATS, 50.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at CHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +15 (+2.3)
2. NEW ORLEANS +5 (+0.9)
3. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+2.1)
2. MILWAUKEE -6.5 (+0.8)
3. INDIANA -8 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +8 (+2.3)
2. BROOKLYN +15 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+2.1)
CHICAGO -11.5 (+2.1)
3. PHILADELPHIA -5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-IND OVER 223.5 (+0.9)
2. SAC-BOS OVER 229.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-CHI UNDER 243 (-2.3)
2. NOP-PHI UNDER 221 (-1.5)
3. OKC-NYK UNDER 225.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +15 (+2.3)
2. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+1.4)
3. GOLDEN STATE +8 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -6.5 (+1.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -4 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-IND OVER 223.5 (+2.8)
2. SAC-BOS OVER 229.5 (+1.6)
3. BKN-DEN OVER 219 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-ORL UNDER 211 (-4.1)
2. WSH-CHI UNDER 243 (-3.5)
3. OKC-NYK UNDER 225.5 (-3.0)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) NEW ORLEANS at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* NEW ORLEANS is 9-3-2 ATS in the last 14 games versus Philadelphia
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(505) GOLDEN STATE at (506) INDIANA
* Underdogs have won nine straight ATS in the GSW-IND non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS
(507) OKLAHOMA CITY at (508) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the OKC-NYK meetings at New York
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(509) SACRAMENTO at (510) BOSTON
* Under the total has converted in five straight games when Sacramento visits Boston
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(511) WASHINGTON at (512) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the WSH-CHI series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
