Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* CHICAGO is 13-2-1 ATS versus Charlotte since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs. CHA)
* Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-36-1 (62.1%) in their last 96 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS, CHICAGO, OKLAHOMA CITY
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML, CHICAGO ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH ML, DENVER ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-MIL, MEM-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-NOP
UNDER – TOR-MIL, CHA-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-BOS, MIN-NYK, BKN-LAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 111-85-1 (56.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/17: Under the total in CHICAGO-CHARLOTTE
1/17: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-TORONTO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-MIL (o/u at 231.5), CHA-CHI (o/u at 235.5)
* Over the total was 52-44 (54.2%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/17: Over the total in DALLAS-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-DAL (o/u at 225)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 40-41 SU and 28-52-1 ATS skid in the last 81 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/17: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Toronto
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-11 vs. TOR)
* UTAH is on a 43-23 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
1/17: Over the total in UTAH-NEW ORLEANS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-NOP (o/u at 230)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 205-38 SU but just 113-125-5 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-11 vs BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 178-150 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-191 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-BOS (o/u at 212.5), TOR-MIL (o/u at 231.5), UTA-NOP (o/u at 230), BKN-LAL (o/u at 216.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 255-134 SU but just 168-209-12 ATS (44.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-11.5 vs. UTA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-214 SU but 207-261-13 ATS (44.2%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-11 vs. TOR)
Divisional upsets can lead to Unders
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 59-36-1 (62.1%) in their last 96 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 279-241 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 260-274 SU and 237-290-7 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-11 vs. TOR)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 137-97 SU and 132-95-7 ATS (58.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-11 vs. TOR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 66-16 SU and 47-33-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at DAL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +13.5 (+1.4)
2. TORONTO +11 (+0.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -11 (+2.9)
2. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+1.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +8.5 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA +5 (+0.4)
3. TORONTO +11 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). BOSTON -13.5 (+1.0)
LA LAKERS -11 (+1.0)
3. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-NYK OVER 217.5 (+4.2)
2. MEM-SAS OVER 239 (+1.4)
3. UTA-NOP OVER 230 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DAL UNDER 225 (-4.0)
2. ORL-BOS UNDER 212.5 (-3.7)
3. CHA-CHI UNDER 235.5 (-2.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). ORLANDO +13.5 (+0.8)
MINNESOTA +5 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO +11 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -11 (+2.6)
2. MEMPHIS -2.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-NYK OVER 217.5 (+3.2)
2. MEM-SAS OVER 239 (+1.5)
3. UTA-NOP OVER 230 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DAL UNDER 225 (-5.3)
2. ORL-BOS UNDER 212.5 (-4.0)
3. CHA-CHI UNDER 235.5 (-3.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) ORLANDO at (534) BOSTON
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the ORL-BOS series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(535) MINNESOTA at (536) NEW YORK
* Underdogs have won five of last six in MIN-NYK head-to-head non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(539) UTAH at (540) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the UTA-NOP series
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(541) MEMPHIS at (542) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in last eight of the MEM-SAS divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
(543) DENVER at (544) MIAMI
* DENVER is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 visits to Miami
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) DALLAS
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games at Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS
(547) CHARLOTTE at (548) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO is 13-2-1 ATS versus Charlotte since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(549) BROOKLYN at (550) LA LAKERS
* Underdogs have won five straight ATS in the BKN-LAL series in Los Angeles
