The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Under the total is on an extended 20-4 run in the Boston-Houston non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in BOS-HOU (o/u at 220.5)

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 134-96 SU and 129-95-6 ATS (57.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at DEN)

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 50-66-1 ATS (43.1%) in the next game, including 22-36 ATS (37.9%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+4.5 at OKC), CLEVELAND (-7 at DAL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. NYK)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 33-17 SU and 33-16-1 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+2 vs. BOS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, NEW YORK, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, TORONTO, NEW YORK, NEW ORLEANS, SACRAMENTO, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, TORONTO, SACRAMENTO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, DENVER ML, SACRAMENTO ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – WSH-NOP, SAS-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-DET, ORL-TOR

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA being trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 187-126 SU and 182-123 ATS (59.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
1/3: CHARLOTTE at Detroit
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+7 at DET)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 72-37 SU and 64-41-4 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/3: HOUSTON vs. Boston
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+2 vs. BOS)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 38-38 SU and 44-31-1 ATS (58.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
1/3: LA LAKERS vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs. ATL)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 33-17 SU and 33-16-1 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/3: HOUSTON vs. Boston
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+2 vs. BOS)

* Over the total was 113-78 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/3: Over the total in DETROIT-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-DET (o/u at 219)

* Under the total was 107-80-1 (57.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/3: Under the total in LA LAKERS-ATLANTA
1/3: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-NEW YORK
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-OKC (o/u at 222.5), ATL-LAL (o/u at 231.5)

* Over the total was 87-59 (59.6%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
1/3: Over the total in LA LAKERS-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-LAL (o/u at 231.5)

* LA LAKERS are on a 15-29 SU and 14-29-1 ATS skid in the last 44 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/3: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Atlanta
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs. ATL)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 20-3 SU and 18-5 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
1/3: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. New York
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. NYK)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-9 Over the total in its last 31 3rd Straight Home games
1/3: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-OKC (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 141-48 SU and 114-74-1 ATS (60.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. NYK)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 215-124 SU but 153-180-6 ATS (45.9%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 vs. SAS)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 67-50 SU and 64-51-2 ATS (55.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 vs. SAS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 255-270 SU and 232-286-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+1 vs. ORL)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 284-258 SU and 244-284-12 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-2 at HOU)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 145-163 SU and 140-160-8 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-2 at HOU)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 169-142 SU and 173-129-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-2 at HOU)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 134-96 SU and 129-95-6 ATS (57.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at DEN)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3-point field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 173-63 SU and 127-106-3 ATS (54.5%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-2 at HOU)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 64-16 SU and 45-33-2 ATS (57.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they become favorites in this line range at Dallas, -7 currently)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 210-263-3 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-119 SU and 60-81-5 ATS (42.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+7 at DET), NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 vs. WSH), NEW YORK (+4.5 at OKC), OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. NYK), CLEVELAND (-7 at DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 50-66-1 ATS (43.1%) in the next game, including 22-36 ATS (37.9%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+4.5 at OKC), CLEVELAND (-7 at DAL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+2.0)
2. CHARLOTTE +7 (+1.0)
3. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+1.4)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+0.7)
BOSTON -2 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+3.3)
2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+3.1)
3. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+1.5)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-TOR OVER 216.5 (+0.8)
2. CHA-DET OVER 219 (+0.7)
3. MEM-SAC OVER 239.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-DEN UNDER 237.5 (-1.3)
2(tie). NYK-OKC UNDER 222.5 (-0.8)
BOS-HOU UNDER 220.5 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +7 (+2.3)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.5)
3. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -2 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+1.8)
3. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-HOU OVER 220.5 (+3.2)
2. ORL-TOR OVER 216.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-DEN UNDER 237.5 (-3.5)
2. NYK-OKC UNDER 222.5 (-2.9)
3. ATL-LAL UNDER 231.5 (-2.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(541) CHARLOTTE at (542) DETROIT
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CHA-DET series, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(543) ORLANDO at (544) TORONTO
* Favorites are on extended 15-4 ATS run in the ORL-TOR series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(545) NEW YORK at (546) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total has converted in five straight meetings between NYK and OKC
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(547) BOSTON at (548) HOUSTON
* Under the total is on extended 20-4 run in the BOS-HOU non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(551) CLEVELAND at (552) DALLAS
* Road teams have covered seven straight ATS in the CLE-DAL series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(555) MEMPHIS at (556) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MEM-SAC series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(557) ATLANTA at (558) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between ATL and LAL
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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