Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 38-29-1 (56.7%). Here are today’s results:
– SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at SAC)
SAS is underpriced in all three Makinen ratings projections + extreme stats system #15 and recent head-to-head trend favors San Antonio
– MEM-DAL UNDER 240
A couple of DK betting splits systems, Makinen ratings projections, team strength system #5, and a recent head-to-head trend all favor Under
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams, having lost their last four games or more, have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 37-12 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) in their last 49 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-10 at DAL)
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of Portland-Oklahoma City head-to-head divisional rivalry at OKC
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-OKC (o/u at 230.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 20-27 SU and 14-33 ATS skid in its last 47 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 vs. NYK)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, SACRAMENTO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS, OKLAHOMA CITY
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – TORONTO ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML, DENVER ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, MEMPHIS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-TOR, MEM-DAL, SAS-SAC, NYK-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CLE-CHA, PHX-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIN-MIA
UNDER – NYK-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-TOR, MEM-DAL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Over the total was 97-80 (54.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/7: Over the total in NEW YORK-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY): NYK-LAC (o/u at 218.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 34-88 SU and 47-71-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/7: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Cleveland
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+16 vs CLE)
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 20-27 SU and 14-33 ATS skid in its last 47 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
3/7: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. New York
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 vs. NYK)
* MIAMI is on an 11-8 SU but 8-11 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/7: FADE MIAMI vs. Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+5.5 vs MIN)
* NEW YORK is on 28-22 SU and 32-18 ATS run on the ROAD in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
3/7: NEW YORK at La Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+7.5 at LAC)
* UTAH is on a 47-24 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
3/7: Over the total in UTAH-TORONTO
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-TOR (o/u at 230)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 106-73 SU and 107-69-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (*if they fall into this line range at TOR, +5.5 currently)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 102-85 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-165 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 263-202 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-CHA (o/u at 234.5)
UNDER – MEM-DAL (o/u at 240)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4 seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-90 SU and 61-82-5 ATS (42.7%) slide, including 32-51-3 ATS in the L86 games and 20-35 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+7.5 at LAC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 297-255 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-TOR (o/u at 230)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 275-293 SU and 252-308-8 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 vs. NYK)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 310-287 SU but 269-309-17 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at MIA)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 154-170 SU and 147-168-9 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at MIA)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 178-146 SU and 183-132-9 ATS (58.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+6.5 at SAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 33-69 SU but 55-47 ATS (53.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+16 vs. CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 37-12 SU and 33-14-2 ATS (70.2%) in their last 49 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-10 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 70-18 SU and 50-35-3 ATS (58.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-16 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 73-85 SU but 89-67-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-10 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 237-286-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-16 at CHA), CHARLOTTE (+16 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 56-76-1 ATS (42.4%) in the next game, including 25-38 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-16 at CHA)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +7.5 (+3.7)
2. DALLAS +10 (+3.5)
3. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -7.5 (+1.6)
2. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+5.9)
2. DALLAS +10 (+4.0)
3. NEW YORK +7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+3.7)
2. DENVER -7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-DEN OVER 238.5 (+1.7)
2. SAS-SAC OVER 234.5 (+1.5)
3. NYK-LAC OVER 218.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-DAL UNDER 240 (-4.2)
2. UTA-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-0.7)
3. CLE-CHA UNDER 234.5 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +10 (+4.5)
2. SAN ANTONIO +6.5 (+2.7)
3. CHARLOTTE +16 (+2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+4.1)
2. DENVER -7.5 (+3.6)
3. TORONTO -6 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-SAC OVER 234.5 (+1.5)
2. NYK-LAC OVER 218.5 (+0.6)
3. PHX-DEN OVER 238.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-DAL UNDER 240 (-5.1)
2. UTA-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-1.8)
3. CLE-CHA UNDER 234.5 (-1.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(563) UTAH at (564) TORONTO
* Over the total is 6-0 in the last six of the UTA-TOR head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(565) MEMPHIS at (566) DALLAS
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the MEM-DAL divisional series at Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(567) MINNESOTA at (568) MIAMI
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MIN-MIA head-to-head series at Miami
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(569) PORTLAND at (570) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the POR-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry at OKC
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(571) SAN ANTONIO at (572) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the SAS-SAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 games when SAS visits Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(573) PHOENIX at (574) DENVER
* Under the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of the PHX-DEN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(575) NEW YORK at (576) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the NYK-LAC cross-country head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
