Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 8-1 in the PHX-OKC series when played at Oklahoma City since the start of 2018-2019 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHX-OKC (o/u at 228)
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-48 SU and 111-69-2 ATS (61.7%) in their last 182 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5 vs. MIA)
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 95-61 SU and 92-61-3 ATS (60.1%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-2 at TOR)
Under the total was on a 33-11 (75%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-66-1 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 21-36 ATS (36.8%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (*if they become 4-point favorites or less, -4.5 currently)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, BROOKLYN, LA LAKERS, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DETROIT, LA LAKERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, ATLANTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, HOUSTON ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA ML, BROOKLYN ML, CHICAGO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, BROOKLYN ML, CHICAGO ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-ORL, MIA-IND, DET-TOR, DEN-NOP, MIN-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-CLE
UNDER – MIA-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-NYK, LAC-HOU
UNDER – PHI-ORL, DEN-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 180-121 SU and 174-119 ATS (59.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/15: DENVER at New Orleans
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at NOP)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 135-92 SU but 100-124-3 ATS (44.6%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/15: FADE GOLDEN STATE vs. Memphis
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs. MEM)
11/15: FADE ATLANTA vs. Washington
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs. WSH)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 73-42 SU but 51-63-1 ATS (44.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/15: FADE ATLANTA vs. Washington
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs. WSH)
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 38-22 SU but 24-35-1 ATS (40.7%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/15: FADE ATLANTA vs. Washington
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs WSH)
* Home teams on OneDayRest are 45-36 SU and 45-34-2 ATS (57%) hosting teams playing on a 3rdGamein8+Days game over the L4 seasons.
11/15: NEW ORLEANS vs. Denver
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs. DEN)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 26-17 SU and 26-15-2 ATS (63.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/15: ORLANDO vs. Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-2.5 vs. PHI)
* Over the total was 106-73 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/15: Over the total in NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
* Under the total was 103-72-1 (58.9%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
11/15: Under the total in ORLANDO-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ORL (o/u at 210)
* Under the total was 35-18 (66%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/15: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-DENVER
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
* Under the total was on a 33-11 (75%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/15: Under the total in DENVER-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* Miami is on a 17-10 SU and 19-7-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
11/15: MIAMI at Indiana
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5 at IND)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
11/15: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. PHX)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 36-25 SU and 40-21 ATS in its last 61 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/15: PHILADELPHIA at Orlando
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+2.5 at ORL)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-7 Over the total in its last 28 3rd Straight Home games
11/15: OVER the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 228)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 135-47 SU and 109-72-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. PHX)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 95-61 SU and 92-61-3 ATS (60.1%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-2 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 87-73 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 228-163 (58.3%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHI-CLE (o/u at 237.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-48 SU and 111-69-2 ATS (61.7%) in their last 182 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5 vs. MIA)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 242-129 SU but just 158-202-11 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-4.5 at NOP), GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs MEM)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 237-252 SU and 217-266-6 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+1.5 vs MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 250-241 SU and 220-258-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3 at SAS)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 129-153 SU and 127-148-7 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-3 at SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 28-59 SU but 46-41 ATS (52.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs. DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 93-17 SU but 48-60-3 ATS (44.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (166-185 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (224-217 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at ATL), TORONTO (+2 vs. DET)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 197-246-1 ATS (44.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-109 SU and 58-74-3 ATS (43.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 46-66-1 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 21-36 ATS (36.8%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10.5 vs. CHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+1.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+1.7)
3. MIAMI +5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+2.0)
2. CLEVELAND -10.5 (+1.8)
3. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+4.0)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+3.7)
3. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+4.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+3.9)
3. ORLANDO -2.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-ATL OVER 241.5 (+2.3)
2. CHI-CLE OVER 237.5 (+1.9)
3. MEM-GSW OVER 236.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-SAS UNDER 227.5 (-3.0)
2. PHI-ORL UNDER 209.5 (-2.6)
3. MIN-SAC UNDER 222.5 (-2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +9.5 (+1.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+0.3)
3. MIAMI +5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -9.5 (+2.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.8)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-NOP OVER 219.5 (+1.5)
2. CHI-CLE OVER 237.5 (+1.4)
3. WSH-ATL OVER 241.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEM-GSW UNDER 236.5 (-5.4)
2. PHI-ORL UNDER 209.5 (-4.4)
3. LAL-SAS UNDER 227.5 (-2.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) PHILADELPHIA at (502) ORLANDO
* PHILADELPHIA is on runs of 6-1 ATS in the last seven games at Orlando and 12-3 ATS in overall matchups with ORL since 2020
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(503) MIAMI at (504) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in last 10 of the MIA-IND series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
(505) DETROIT at (506) TORONTO
* Home teams have won five straight ATS in the DET-TOR series, although Detroit is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 overall matchups with Toronto
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING TORONTO ATS
(507) WASHINGTON at (508) ATLANTA
* WASHINGTON is 5-1 ATS against ATL since the start of last season
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(509) BROOKLYN at (510) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of BKN-NYK rivalry, but did lose the last time
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
(511) CHICAGO at (512) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 5-1 in the CHI-CLE divisional series in Cleveland since start of 2021-2022 season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(515) PHOENIX at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 8-1 in the PHX-OKC series when played at Oklahoma City since start of 2018-2019 season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(517) LA CLIPPERS at (518) HOUSTON
* Houston has won all four ATS meetings with LAC since start of last season
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(519) DENVER at (520) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between DEN and NOP
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
(523) MINNESOTA at (524) SACRAMENTO
* MINNESOTA is 6-1 ATS in games at Sacramento since 2021
* Road teams have won seven straight ATS in the MIN-SAC series
Systems Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
