The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 101-81-4 (55.5%). Here is today’s result: 

– OKC-IND UNDER 227
Multiple finals trends/systems, scheduling situation, and both Makinen ratings projections all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game Fours – The first three games of the last 11 NBA Finals series have produced 211.5 PPG on average. Game Four has seen a significant drop to 204.3, with 10 of the last 11 going Under the total.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded fourth or worse. Their overall record: 6-17 SU and 9-12-2 ATS (42.9%). When coming off wins, they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%). At home, they are just 2-5 SU and ATS (28.6%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

* Under the total was 70-31 (69.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-34 SU and 7-33-1 ATS (17.5%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 46-19 SU and 43-17-5 ATS (71.7%) over the last nine years. 

·   In its 19 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less four times, and 105 or more 15 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 16 times.

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General Trends

Home teams are a slightly better wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 31-23 SU and 27-25-2 ATS (51.9%) since 2014. This includes an improved 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%) mark in the last 25 games.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 18-8 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) in the last 26 Finals’ games. In the 10 games prior to that,  they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND) 

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 64 games, outright winners have gone 58-3-3 ATS (95.1%) in the NBA Finals. 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 70 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 29 Overs, 40 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 26-12-1 (68.4%) run in the last 39 games, and 10-1 (90.9%) in last 11.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

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Trends by Line Range

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 3-7 SU and ATS (30%) in their last 10 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC)

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Trends by Game Number

Home teams struggle in Game Fours – Game Four hosts have gone just 3-8 SU and ATS (27.3%) in the NBA Finals since 2013.

Home team Game Fours that won Game Three are bad bets – Home teams that won their NBA Finals Game Three are 1-4 SU and ATS since 2013 in Game Four, losing all three times by double-digits, despite being favored in three of the games.
Trends Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game 4’s – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.5 PPG on average. Game Four has seen a significant drop to 204.3, with 10 of the last 11 going Under the total.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

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Trends by Seed Number

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 16-11 SU but 11-13-3 ATS (45.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND)

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 6-17 SU and 9-12-2 ATS (42.9%). When coming off wins, they are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%). At home, they are just 2-5 SU and ATS (28.6%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC)

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in games 3 and later of their respective series, going 11-8 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy Under teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 17-4 Under (81%). They are averaging 101.3 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 99-75 SU and 93-78-3 ATS (54.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 68-63 SU and 71-57-3 ATS (55.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
Systems Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC)

* Under the total was 70-31 (69.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 136-85-1 (61.5%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total is on a 99-58-1 (63.1%) in the last 158 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a OneDayRest game.

* Under the total was 94-61-1 (60.6%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +6 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +6 (+3.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND UNDER 227 (-6.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +6 (+2.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND UNDER 227 (-2.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

Friday, June 13, 2025

(507) OKLAHOMA CITY at (508) INDIANA
* Favorites are on extended 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS run in Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND)

* Over the total is 4-2 in the last six games of the OKC-IND head-to-head series at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-IND (o/u at 227)

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