The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 51-25 SU and 47-26-3 ATS (64.4%) hosting teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC)

Momentum has been a big factor in Games 5-7– The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in an NBA Finals game are 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) in Games 5-7 of a series.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND) 

* Teams facing elimination in Game Six have most often bowed out – There have been seven teams that have faced elimination in Game Six of the NBA Finals since 2013. These teams are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in those contests.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA ML 

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-35 SU and 7-34-1 ATS (17.1%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 48-20 SU and 45-18-5 ATS (71.4%) over the last nine years.

In its 21 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less five times, and 105 or more 16 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 18 times.

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General Trends

Home teams are a slightly better wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 32-24 SU and 28-26-2 ATS (51.9%) since 2014. This includes an improved 15-11-1 ATS (57.7%) mark in the last 27 games.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC) 

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 20-8 SU and 17-10-1 ATS (63%) in the last 28 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND)

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 66 games, outright winners have gone 60-3-3 ATS (95.2%) in the NBA Finals. 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 70 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 30 Overs, 41 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 27-13-1 (67.5%) run in the last 41 games, and 11-2 (84.6%) in the last 13.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 222)

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Trends by Line Range

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 3-8 SU and ATS (27.3%) in their last 11 opportunities.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC)

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Last Game Trends

Other double-digit losses have carried over – Teams that suffered a loss within the 11-29 point range have gone just 11-20 SU and 10-18-3 ATS (35.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC)

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Trends by Game Number

Momentum has been a big factor in Games Five, Six, Seven – The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in a NBA Finals game are 8-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%) in Games Five, Six and Seven of a series.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND)

Teams facing elimination in Game Six have most often bowed out – There have been seven teams that have faced elimination in Game Six of the NBA Finals since 2013. These teams are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in those contests.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC)

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Trends by Seed Number

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 18-11 SU but 13-13-3 ATS (50%). 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 6-19 SU and 9-14-2 ATS (39.1%). When coming off wins, they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS (14.3%). At home, they are just 2-6 SU and ATS (25%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been good in Games Three and later of their respective series, going 11-10 SU and 13-8 ATS (61.9%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs OKC) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy UNDER teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 18-5 Under (78.3%). They are averaging 101.7 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 222)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 51-25 SU and 47-26-3 ATS (64.4%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6 vs. OKC) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-20 SU and 36-19-2 ATS in its last 57 games playing on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND) 

* Under the total was 92-70-1 (56.8%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 137-86-1 (61.4%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 95-62-1 (60.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-IND (o/u at 222)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME SIX 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +6 (+2.0)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -6 (+2.1) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND OVER 222 (+3.7) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +6 (+2.2) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-IND OVER 222 (+3.4) 

Here is a top head-to-head series NBA betting trend in play for today’s game: 

Thursday, June 19, 2025

(511) OKLAHOMA CITY at (512) INDIANA
* Favorites are on extended 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS run in the Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6 at IND)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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