Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in an NBA Finals game are just 8-14 SU and ATS (36.4%) outright in the next game in their last 22 tries.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
* Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 28-8 SU and 23-11-2 ATS (67.6%).
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
* Under the total was 138-86-1 (61.6%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 214.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA ML (+215 at OKC)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-OKC (o/u at 214.5)
NBA Finals Trends/Systems
Scoring Trends
104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-36 SU and 7-35-1 ATS (16.7%).
Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 49-20 SU and 46-18-5 ATS (71.9%) over the last nine years.
·In its 22 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less five times, and 105 or more 17 times. OKC has scored 104 or less four times and 105 or more 18 times.
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General Trends
Home teams are a slightly better wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 33-24 SU and 29-26-2 ATS (52.7%) since 2014. This includes an improved 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) mark in the last 28 games.
Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 20-9 SU and 17-11-1 ATS (60.7%) in the last 29 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
Systems Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 67 games, outright winners have gone 61-3-3 ATS (95.3%) in the NBA Finals.
Totals leaning Under of late – In the 70 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 30 Overs, 42 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 28-13-1 (68.3%) run in the last 42 games, and 12-2 (85.7%) in the last 14.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 214.5)
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Trends by Line Range
Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 28-8 SU and 23-11-2 ATS (67.6%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
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Last Game Trends
Bad shooting games have carried over negative momentum in the Finals – Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in a NBA Finals game are just 8-14 SU and ATS (36.4%) outright in their last 22 tries.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
Other double-digit losses have carried over – Teams that suffered a loss within the 11-29 point range have gone just 12-20 SU and 11-18-3 ATS (37.9%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs IND)
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Trends by Game Number
Momentum has been a big factor in Games Five, Six and Seven – The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in a NBA Finals game are 8-6 SU and 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) in Games Five, Six and Seven of a series.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
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Trends by Seed Number
Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 18-12 SU but 13-14-3 ATS (48.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 7-19 SU and 10-14-2 ATS (41.7%). When coming off wins, they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS (14.3%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been good in Games Three and later of their respective series, going 12-10 SU and 14-8 ATS (63.6%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+7 at OKC)
Teams seeded 4th or worse in the NBA Finals have been heavy Under teams – Since 2018, their totals record: 19-5 Under (79.2%). They are averaging 102 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 214.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 52-25 SU and 48-26-3 ATS (64.9%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-21 SU and 36-20-2 ATS in its last 58 games playing on 2 Days Rest
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
* Under the total was 93-70-1 (57.1%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
* Under the total was 138-86-1 (61.6%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
* Under the total was 96-62-1 (60.8%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 214.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 158-61 SU and 130-88-1 ATS (59.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+2.3)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+1.2)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC UNDER 214.5 (-0.6)
UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7 (+1.9)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC OVER 214.5 (+3.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here is a head-to-head series NBA trend in play for today’s game:
Sunday, June 22, 2025
(513) INDIANA at (514) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are on extended 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS run in Thunder-Pacers head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7 vs. IND)
