The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA game on June 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 100-81-4 (55.2%). Here are today’s results: 

– OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)
Multiple finals trends/systems, scheduling situation, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OKC

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In the NBA Finals, Under is on a 25-11-1 (69.4%) run in the last 37 games, including 9-0 in the last nine,
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 8+ Days scenario are 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) hosting teams playing on 2DaysRest over the last three seasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 62 games, outright winners have gone 56-3-3 ATS (94.9%) in the NBA Finals. 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA ML (+390 at OKC) 

Scoring Trends

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-34 SU and 7-33-1 ATS (17.5%). 

Success accompanies reaching the 105-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 105 points or more boast a record of 44-17 SU and 41-15-5 ATS (74.1%) over the last nine years. 

· In its 17 playoff games so far, Indiana has scored 104 or less four times, and 105 or more 13 times. OKC has scored 104 or less three times and 105 or more 14 times.

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General Trends

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 29-23 SU and 25-25-2 ATS (50%) since 2014. This includes an improved 12-10-1 ATS (54.5%) mark in the last 23 games.

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 17-7 SU and 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) in the last 24 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND) 

Winners cover – Over the last 11 seasons, and 62 games, outright winners have gone 56-3-3 ATS (94.9%) in the NBA Finals. 

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 69 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 39 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 25-11-1 (69.4%) run in the last 37 games, and on a current nine-game streak.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

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Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 26-8 SU and 21-11-2 ATS (65.6%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)

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Last Game Trend

Bad shooting games have carried over negative momentum in the Finals – Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in a NBA Finals game are just 7-14 SU and ATS (33.3%) outright in their last 21 tries.
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)

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Trends by Game Number

Home teams/favorites have also fared well in Game Twos of late – I just showed how well Game One home teams/favorites have done lately, well, they are also getting it done in Game Two, going 7-2 SU and 5-2-2 ATS (71.4%) in the last nine seasons although Boston did push on the point spread last year in Game Two.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)

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Trends by Seed Number

Top seeds have not been an auto-cover – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is 15-10 SU but 10-12-3 ATS (45.5%).
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 5-16 SU and 8-11-2 ATS (42.1%). When coming off wins, they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+11 at OKC) 

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been heavy UNDER teams – Dating back to 2018, there have been four teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their totals record: 16-3 Under (84.2%). They are averaging 100.2 PPG offensively in that span, well below league scoring averages.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 48-25 SU and 44-26-3 ATS (62.9%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 8+ Days scenario are 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) hosting teams playing on 2 Days Rest over the last three seasons.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-19 SU and 34-18-2 ATS in its last 54 games playing on 2 Days Rest
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs IND)

* Under the total was 91-68-1 (57.2%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 135-84-1 (61.6%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 93-60-1 (60.8%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.

* Under the total was 42-22 (65.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rdStraightHome game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.

* Under the total was 26-12 (68.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-12 Over the total in its last 40 3rd Straight Home games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 267-48 SU but just 149-160-6 ATS (48.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-92 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-176 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 291-226 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +11 (+0.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +11 (+1.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC OVER 228.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +11 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-OKC OVER 228.5 (+0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

(503) INDIANA at (504) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the IND-OKC head-to-head series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11 vs. IND)* Under the total is 3-1 in the last four of the IND-OKC head-to-head series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-OKC (o/u at 228.5)

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