The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 10, 2025, and May 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 92-74-3 (55.4%). Here are today’s results: 

– BOS-NYK UNDER 208
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, and extreme stat system #10 all favor Under 

– CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND)
DK Betting Splits system #2, multiple playoff trends/systems, Makinen effective strength ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor CLE

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 19-7 SU and ATS (73.1%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 26-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 at NYK) 

* Favorites are 12-3 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 of Timberwolves-Warriors head-to-head series at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW)

* Teams up in the series are just 15-22 SU and 11-25-1 ATS (30.6%) in their last 37 Game Four tries, including 0-4 ATS a year ago.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC), INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE) 

* Under the total was 65-29 (69.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-GSW (o/u at 200.5), OKC-DEN (o/u at 227), CLE-IND (o/u at 231)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 10. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, CLEVELAND ML

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-NYK, MIN-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND

Scoring Trends

–  It was in the 2016-17 season that scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 125-30 SU and 119-35-1 ATS (77.3%).

–  Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 25-119 SU and 32-111-1 ATS (22.4%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Big road favorites win and cover – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA second round road favorites of 5 points or more are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-6 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN)

–  Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 15-25 SU and 13-27 ATS (32.5%) since 2013. There were none of these in 2024.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND) 

–  The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 38-21-1 (64.4%), including 15-3 when 227.5 or higher!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-DEN (o/u at 227), CLE-IND (o/u at 231)

Last Game Trends

–  Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 13-27 SU and 16-24 ATS (40%) in the follow-up contests in their last 40 playoff tries. However, these teams are 9-4 ATS in their last 13.
System Matches (CONSIDER FADING): BOSTON (-6 at NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN) 

–  Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 26-15 ATS (63.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN), INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE)

–  Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 19-7 SU and ATS (73.1%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 26-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

–  There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 36-20-1 Under (64.3%) the total in the last 57.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208), OKC-DEN (o/u at 227)

–  Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 22-29-1 ATS (43.1%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

Trends by Game Number

– Home teams are 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS (57.1%) in the last 14 Game Threes, turning around a trend of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+6 vs. BOS), GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs MIN) 

–  Change of venue has changed scoring trend recently – with more game 2’s going Over than not, the scoring pace slows for Game Threes, as they are 21-9 Under (70%) in the last 30.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208), MIN-GSW (o/u at 200.5) 

–  In the last 18 Game Threes featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 14 have gone Under the total (77.8%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208) 

– Oddsmakers pave the road for Game Four profits – An interesting trend that has developed over the last eight playoff seasons finds that second round Game Four favorites are on a surge of 28-11 SU and 23-15-1 ATS (60.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN), CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND) 

–  Game Four winners have most often become Game Four winners as well, as they are 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in their last 20 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC), CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND)

– Teams up in the series are just 15-22 SU and 11-25-1 ATS (30.6%) in their last 37 Game Four tries, including 0-4 ATS a year ago.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC), INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE)

Trends by Seed Number

–  After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 52-42 SU and 45-48-1 ATS (48.4%) in their last 94 second round playoff games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at DEN), CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND)

–  #1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last four postseasons, going 7-11 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) in last 18 tries when coming off a same series win.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 at IND)

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 38-21-2 (64.4%) in the last 61.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208) 

–  Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 14-37 SU and 19-30-1 ATS (38.8%) as such since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC), INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE)

–  Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 12-24 SU and 14-22 ATS (38.9%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE) 

–  First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 4-32 SU and 14-22 ATS (38.9%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (*if they become 6-point underdogs or more, +5.5 currently)

–  Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 11-23 SU and 12-22 ATS (35.3%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at GSW)Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 48-24 SU and 44-25-3 ATS (63.8%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+6 vs. BOS) 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 65-59 SU and 66-55-3 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs. MIN), DENVER (+5.5 vs. OKC), INDIANA (+4.5 vs. CLE) 

* Under the total was 129-83-1 (60.8%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208), MIN-GSW (o/u at 200.5) 

* Under the total was 65-29 (69.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total is on a 94-51-1 (64.8%) in the last 146 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-GSW (o/u at 200.5), OKC-DEN (o/u at 227), CLE-IND (o/u at 231)

* Under the total was 90-68-1 (57%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 88-60-1 (59.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.

* NEW YORK is 24-9 Under the total since ’20-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 153-56 SU and 124-83-2 ATS (59.9%) in their last 209 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 at NYK) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 101-64 SU and 97-65-3 ATS (59.9%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-6 at NYK)

Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 60-39-1 (60.6%) in their last 100 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYK (o/u at 208) 

Unusual shooting performance system
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 315-269 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-IND (o/u at 231)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6 (+6.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+3.1)
3. DENVER +5.5 (+2.0) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6 (+3.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+0.5) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -4.5 (+1.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+0.6) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-IND OVER 231 (+1.6)
2. MIN-GSW OVER 200.5 (+1.3)
3. BOS-NYK OVER 208 (+0.2) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-DEN UNDER 227 (-0.4) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +6 (+5.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+2.7)
3. DENVER +5.5 (+1.7) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DEN OVER 227 (+5.1)
2. CLE-IND OVER 231 (+2.8)
3. MIN-GSW OVER 200.5 (+2.4) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all the games:

Saturday, May 10, 2025

(569) MINNESOTA at (570) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are 12-3 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 of the MIN-GSW head-to-head series at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA

Sunday, May 11, 2025

(571) OKLAHOMA CITY at (572) DENVER
* Underdogs are 11-8 SU and 15-4 ATS in the last 19 of the DEN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER 

(573) CLEVELAND at (574) INDIANA
* Road teams are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of the IND-CLE head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

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