The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 14, 2025, and May 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 93-77-3 (54.7%). Here are today’s results:

– BOSTON (-4.5 vs. NYK)
Multiple playoff trends/systems, team strength system #1, extreme stat system #9, and Makinen bettors ratings projection all favor BOS 

– GOLDEN STATE (+11 at MIN)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, second round Game Five trend, and Makinen power ratings projection all favor GSW + many playoff-specific trends/systems fade MIN

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 17-11 SU but just 7-21 ATS (25%) since 2016!
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-11 vs. GSW) 

* Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 15-10 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in their last 25 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-4.5 vs. NYK), GOLDEN STATE (+11 at MIN) 

* Ten of the last 14 (71.4%) Game Sixes that have been played the last four playoff seasons have gone Under the total
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 217.5) 

* Underdogs are 11-10 SU and 17-4 ATS in the last 21 of the Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+4.5 vs. OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, GOLDEN STATE, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML, DENVER ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-BOS, GSW-MIN
UNDER – OKC-DEN

Scoring Trends

–  It was in the 2016-17 season that scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second-round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second-round playoff game have gone 131-31 SU and 124-37-1 ATS (77%).

–  Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 27-122 SU and 34-114-1 ATS (23%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

– Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 17-11 SU but just 7-21 ATS (25%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 69-52-1 ATS (57%) in that span.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-11 vs. GSW) 

–  Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at DEN)

Last Game Trends

–  Teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 29-17 ATS (63%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-4.5 vs NYK), DENVER (+4.5 vs OKC) 

–  There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in the last 61.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 207.5), GSW-MIN (o/u at 202), OKC-DEN (o/u at 217.5)

Trends by Game Number

–  Expect Game Fives to be tight – Favorites are 32-13 SU but just 20-25 ATS (44.4%) since 2013. This is a significant win/no cover percentage of games. In these contests with lines of 5.5 points or more, they are just 11-19 ATS (36.7%).
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-11 vs. GSW) 

– Teams that lost big in Game Four, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in Game Five, going 15-10 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in their last 25 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-4.5 vs. NYK), GOLDEN STATE (+11 at MIN)

–  Game Sixes have swung towards underdogs, 15-13 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+4.5 vs. OKC) 

–  Ten of the last 14 (71.4%) Game Sixes that have been played the last four playoff seasons have gone Under the total
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 217.5)

Trends by Seed Number

– After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 54-44 SU and 45-52-1 ATS (46.4%) in their last 98 second-round playoff games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at DEN) 

– #1 seeds have failed to build on second-round momentum in the last four postseasons, going 7-12 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in the last 19 tries when coming off a same series win.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at DEN) 

– #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 39-22-2 (63.9%) in the last 63.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-BOS (o/u at 207.5) 

– Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 15 of their last 43 games while going 17-26 ATS (39.5%).
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+4.5 at BOS) 

– Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 16-39 SU and 23-30-1 ATS (43.4%) as such since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4.5 vs. OKC)

– The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second-round series are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS (40%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4.5 vs. OKC) 

– Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 13-25 SU and 16-22 ATS (42.1%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+4.5 vs. OKC) 

–  First-round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded fifth or lower have gone 4-32 SU and 14-22 ATS (38.9%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+11 at MIN) 

–  Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there”, as they are just 13-23 SU and ATS (36.1%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11 vs. GSW)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

–  Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (12-9 ATS in the last 21) as compared to at home (7-15 ATS in the last 22). Hosts were 0-4 ATS in this spot in 2024.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-11 vs GSW) 

– There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 19-9 SU but just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2013 (7-7 SU in the last 14).
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-11 vs. GSW)

– Teams looking to close out a series in Game Six have struggled, going just 9-13 SU and 8-14 ATS (36.4%) in their last 22 opportunities, including 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS (22.2%) as chalk.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at DEN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 150-59 SU and 122-86-1 ATS (58.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-4.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-92 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 291-226 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-MIN (o/u at 202)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 102-65 SU and 98-66-3 ATS (59.8%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-4.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER +4.5 (+1.0)
2(tie). NEW YORK +4.5 (+0.1)
GOLDEN STATE +11 (+0.1) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +4.5 (+1.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MINNESOTA -11 (+1.6)
OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+1.6) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DEN OVER 217.5 (+1.2)
2. NYK-BOS OVER 207.5 (+0.2) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER +4.5 (+1.5) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -4.5 (+0.7)
2. MINNESOTA -11 (+0.3) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-DEN OVER 217.5 (+5.0)
2. GSW-MIN OVER 202 (+1.0) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-BOS UNDER 207.5 (-2.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Thursday, May 15:

(571) OKLAHOMA CITY at (572) DENVER
* Underdogs are 11-10 SU and 17-4 ATS in the last 21 of Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR