The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 20, 2025, and May 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 95-77-4 (55.2%). Here is Game One’s result: 

 

– MIN-OKC OVER 215.5
Multiple conference finals trends/systems, a scheduling situation, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Favorites are 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS in the last 22 of Pacers-Knicks head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. IND)

* Nine of the last 10 conference finals Game One have gone Over the total (90%), producing 232.9 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG!
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-OKC (o/u at 215.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 223.5) 

* Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 13-14 SU and 20-7 ATS (70%) in their last 27 tries in the underdog role, including 6-1 ATS last year.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 6:00 p.m. ET on Monday, May 19. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, INDIANA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NYK

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU and 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013. 

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 52-5 SU and 51-4-2 ATS (92.7%) over the last 12 seasons. Three of those ATS losses came in the last two years.

Trends by Line Range

* Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 19-13 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%), including 2-10 ATS over the last two seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs MIN) 

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 47 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 29 of them have gone Under the total (61.7%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NYK (o/u at 223.5) 

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 33 games in the last 11 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 24 of them have gone Over (72.7%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC (o/u at 215.5)

Trends by Game Number

* Conference finals series’ opening games have been tough on home teams of late – Home teams hold a 11-7 SU edge, but they are 7-11 ATS (38.9%) in conference finals Game One since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. IND) 

* The last 10 conference finals game 1’s have been offensive explosions – Nine of the last 10 conference finals Game Ones have gone Over the total (90%), producing 232.9 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG!
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-OKC (o/u at 215.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 223.5)

Trends by Seed Number

* Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 28-3 SU and 18-13 ATS (58.1%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN) 

* #3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 8-25 SU and 11-20-2 ATS (35.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 9-16 ATS (36%) in their last 25 road conference finals games.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+4.5 at NYK) 

* Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 13-14 SU and 20-7 ATS (70%) in their last 27 tries in the underdog role, including 6-1 ATS last year.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 196-134 SU and 191-131 ATS (59.3%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC) 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 66-61 SU and 69-55-3 ATS (55.6%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN) 

* Over the total was 123-85 (59.1%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.

* Under the total was 67-30 (69.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total is on a 96-54-1 (64%) in the last 151 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in MIN-OKC (o/u at 215.5) 

* Under the total was 131-83-1 (61.2%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 89-60-1 (59.7%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NYK (o/u at 223.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 152-59 SU and 124-86-1 ATS (59%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-4.5 vs. IND) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 302-234 SU but 239-282-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-70-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-4 vs. IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +4.5 (+0.4) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.5) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+0.5)
2. INDIANA +4.5 (+0.1) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 215.5 (-1.8)
2. IND-NYK UNDER 223.5 (-0.9) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +4.5 (+0.4)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 215.5 (-2.8)
2. IND-NYK UNDER 223.5 (-0.8) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Game One: 

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

(527) MINNESOTA at (528) OKLAHOMA CITY
* MINNESOTA is 9-5 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 visits to OKC (including 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog)
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA

* Over the total is 10-4 in the last 14 of MIN-OKC head-to-head divisional series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

(533) INDIANA at (534) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS in the last 22 of IND-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK

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