The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 22, 2025, and May 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 95-78-4 (54.9%). Here are today’s results: 

– NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND)
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, team strength system #1, and recent head-to-head trend all favor NYK 

– IND-NYK UNDER 227
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, extreme stat system #11, and both Makinen ratings projections favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* #3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 9-19 SU and 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 at NYK) 

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 24-21 SU and 29-15-1 ATS (65.9%) in their 45 follow-up games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 162-105 SU and 154-106-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN) 

* Under the total was 25-11 (69.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-OKC (o/u at 216.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 227) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game Two as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, May 22. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop-off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, NEW YORK ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-52 SU and 11-51 ATS (17.7%) since 2013.

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 53-6 SU and 52-5-2 ATS (91.2%) over the last 12 seasons.

Trends by Line Range

* Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 20-13 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%), including 3-10 ATS in the last 13.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 49 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 30 of them have gone Under the total (61.2%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-OKC (o/u at 216.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 227)

Last Game Trends

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 24-21 SU and 29-15-1 ATS (65.9%) in their 45 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 20-12 Under (62.5%) the total in their next game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND)
Also PLAY UNDER in IND-NYK (o/u at 227)

Trends by Game Number

* Home teams that won the opening game usually win Game Twos as well – The last 12 conference finals Game Two home teams that won Game One are 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY ML (-290 vs. MIN)

Trends by Seed Number

* Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 29-3 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN) 

* #3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds are on an 11-8 SU and ATS (57.9%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

* #3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 9-25 SU and 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 10-16 ATS (38.5%) in their last 26 road conference finals games.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 at NYK) 

* #3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 16-14 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND)

* Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS (71.4%) in their last 28 tries in the underdog role, including 6-2 ATS since last year.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+7.5 at OKC) 

* #3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 9-19 SU and 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 at NYK)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 98-73 SU and 92-76-3 ATS (54.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the lst four seasons.

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 18-14 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
Systems Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

* INDIANA is 18-34 SU and 18-33-1 ATS in its last 52 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 at NYK)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 67-61 SU and 70-55-3 ATS (56%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs MIN), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs IND) 

* Under the total was 132-83-1 (61.4%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 90-60-1 (60%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NYK (o/u at 227) 

* Under the total was 68-30 (69.4%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total is on a 97-54-1 (64.2%) in L152 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.

* Under the total was 41-21 (66.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.

* Under the total was 25-11 (69.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-OKC (o/u at 216.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 227)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-12 Over the total in its last 39 3rd Straight Home games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-OKC (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 153-60 SU and 125-87-1 ATS (59%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 155-93 SU but 113-131-4 ATS (46.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 93-115 ATS (44.7%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-5.5 vs. IND) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 318-271 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NYK (o/u at 227) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 295-316 SU and 272-331-8 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 162-105 SU and 154-106-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs. MIN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.4) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+1.1)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.0) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.1) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 216.5 (-2.8)
2. IND-NYK UNDER 227 (-2.2) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5.5 (+1.3) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 (+0.8) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-NYK UNDER 227 (-5.0)
2. MIN-OKC UNDER 216.5 (-3.0) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Game Two:

Thursday, May 22, 2025

(537) MINNESOTA at (538) OKLAHOMA CITY
* MINNESOTA is 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 visits to OKC
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA

* Over the total is 10-5 in the last 15 of MIN-OKC head-to-head divisional series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

Friday, May 23, 2025

(539) INDIANA at (540) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS in the last 23 of the ND-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK

* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the IND-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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