The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 24, 2025, and May 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 96-79-4 (54.9%). Here are today’s results:

-MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. OKC)
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor MIN

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* #1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 39 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5 points or less, #1 seeds are just 16-27 SU and 17-25-1 ATS (40.5%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2.5 at MIN)

* Under the total was 69-31 (69%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 223)

* Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2 at IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game Three as of 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, May 24. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

  • Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
  • Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
  • Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
  • Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
  • Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, NEW YORK ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – NYK-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – OKC-MIN

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-52 SU and 11-51 ATS (17.7%) since 2013.

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 54-6 SU and 53-5-2 ATS (91.4%) over the last 12 seasons.

Trends by Line Range

* Small road favorites have been very vulnerable – Road favorites of 4.5 points are just 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 18 tries in the Conference Finals. 
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2.5 at MIN)

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 51 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 31 of them have gone Under the total (60.8%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 218), NYK-IND (o/u at 223)

Last Game Trends

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 24-23 SU and 29-17-1 ATS (63%) in their 47 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 21-12 Under (63.6%) the total in their next game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. OKC), NEW YORK (+2 at IND)
Also PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 223)

* Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2 at IND)

Trends by Game Number

* 2-0 leads are motivating in a conference finals series – Game 3 conference finals teams are up 2-0 in the series are on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS (80%) streak in their last five tries. The only non-cover was by Boston in Game Three at Indiana last May.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2.5 at MIN), INDIANA (-2 vs. NYK)

* Teams that lost big in Game Two bounce back well in Game Three – An interesting trend that has developed over the last 11 playoff seasons finds that conference finals Game Three teams that lost Game Two by double-digits are on a surge of 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. OKC)

Trends by Seed Number

* #1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 39 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5 points or less, #1 seeds are just 16-27 SU and 17-25-1 ATS (40.5%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2.5 at MIN)

* #3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 16-15 SU and 19-11-1 ATS (63.3%) in their last 31 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+2 at IND)

* Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 13-16 SU and 20-9 ATS (69%) in their last 29 tries in the underdog role, including 6-3 ATS since last year.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. OKC)

* #3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-19 SU and 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-2 vs. NYK)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 98-74 SU and 92-77-3 ATS (54.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs. OKC), INDIANA (-2 vs. NYK)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 68-62 SU and 71-56-3 ATS (55.9%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2 vs. NYK)

* Under the total was 69-31 (69%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 91-60-1 (60.3%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND (o/u at 223)

* Under the total was 133-83-1 (61.6%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total is on a 98-55-1 (64.1%) in last 154 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 218), NYK-IND (o/u at 223)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

NO EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS FOR GAME THREE

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME THREE

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -2 (+0.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.3)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MINNESOTA +2.5 (+0.7)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA -2 (+0.5)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 223 (+1.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-MIN UNDER 218 (-0.3)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA -2 (+0.9)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 223 (+0.9)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-MIN UNDER 218 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for Game Three:

Saturday, May 24, 2025

(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 of the OKC-MIN head-to-head divisional series at Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

Sunday, May 25, 2025

(543) NEW YORK at (544) INDIANA
* Favorites are 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS in the last 24 of the IND-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

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