The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 26, 2025, and May 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 97-79-4 (55.1%). Here is today’s result: 

– NYK-IND UNDER 221.5
DK Betting Splits system #12, multiple playoff trends/systems, and scheduling situation all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 303-235 SU but 240-283-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-70-1 ATS (37.5%).
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC)

* Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-20 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC), NEW YORK (+2.5 at IND) 

* Of the 53 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 32 of them have gone Under the total (60.4%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 219), NYK-IND (o/u at 221.5) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Monday, May 26. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, NEW YORK ML

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-IND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIN

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-52 SU and 11-51 ATS (17.7%) since 2013.

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 55-6 SU and 54-5-2 ATS (91.5%) over the last 12 seasons.

Trends by Line Range

* Small road favorites have been very vulnerable – Road favorites of 4.5 points are just 8-11 SU and 6-12-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 19 tries in the Conference Finals.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN)

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 53 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 32 of them have gone Under the total (60.4%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 219), NYK-IND (o/u at 221.5)

Last Game Trends

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 26-23 SU and 31-17-1 ATS (64.6%) in their 49 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 22-12 Under (64.7%) the total in their next game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN), INDIANA (-2.5 vs. NYK)
Also PLAY UNDER in NYK-IND (o/u at 221.5)

Trends by Game Number

* Home team Game Fours not down 0-3 are strong plays – Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%). However, Dallas did lose Game Four a year ago, trying to close out at Minnesota.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC), INDIANA (-2.5 vs. NYK)

* Home teams that won Game Three are also good Game Four bets – conference finals hosts that won Game Three are also on a 7-3 SU and ATS (70%) run in Game Four.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC)

Trends by Seed Number

* #1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 39 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5 points or less, #1 seeds are just 16-28 SU and 17-26-1 ATS (39.5%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN) 

* #3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 17-15 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) in their last 32 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 vs. NYK) 

* Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 14-16 SU and 21-9 ATS (70%) in their last 30 tries in the underdog role.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC) 

* #3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-20 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC), NEW YORK (+2.5 at IND)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* Under the total is on a 99-56-1 (63.9%) in the last 156 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 219), NYK-IND (o/u at 221.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 155-94 SU but 113-132-4 ATS (46.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 93-116 ATS (44.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 303-235 SU but 240-283-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-70-1 ATS (37.5%).
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 104-65 SU and 100-66-3 ATS (60.2%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 296-316 SU and 273-331-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 339-311 SU but 292-338-18 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 201-76 SU and 147-127-3 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +3 (+1.2)
2. NEW YORK +2.5 (+0.6) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+1.8)
2. INDIANA -2.5 (+0.3) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-IND OVER 221.5 (+1.2)
2. OKC-MIN OVER 219 (+0.1) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +3 (+1.5)
2. NEW YORK +2.5 (+0.7) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-IND OVER 221.5 (+1.0) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-MIN UNDER 219 (-0.1)

Here is a head-to-head series NBA trend in play for Game Four:

Monday, May 26, 2025(545)

OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) MINNESOTA
* UNDERDOGS are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 of the OKC-MIN head-to-head divisional series at Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3 vs. OKC)

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