The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 28, 2025, and May 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 97-80-4 (54.8%). Here are today’s results: 

– OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN)
Multiple playoff trends/systems, team strength system #1, Makinen power ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OKC

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game Fives with closeout implication have been high scoring – Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have gone 7-1 Over (85.7%) when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with games producing 225.4 PPG.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 220.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 222.5)

* The better-seeded teams have dominated the Game Five action in conference finals series’ of late, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%) since 2013. In all 18 of those games, the outright winner covered the point spread as well.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND) 

* Road teams looking to close out a series have fared well – Nine of the last 11 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 9-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5 at NYK)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game Five as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 28. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, INDIANA ML

Scoring Trends

* 94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-52 SU and 11-51 ATS (17.7%) since 2013. 

* Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 57-8 SU and 56-7-2 ATS (88.9%) over the last 12 seasons.

Trends by Line Range

* Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 21-14 SU and 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%), including 4-11 ATS in the last 15.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND)

* High totals have meant Unders – Of the 55 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 32 of them have gone Under the total (58.2%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 220.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 222.5)

Last Game Trends

* Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 28-23 SU and 32-18-1 ATS (64%) in their 51 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 22-13 UNDER (62.9%) the total in their next game.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND)
ALSO PLAY UNDER IN BOTH GAMES 

* Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 6-15 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC)

Trends by Game Number

* Favorites are on a huge Game Five run – Teams laying the points have gone 14-4 SU and ATS (77.8%) in conference finals Game Fives.

* Simply put, the better seeds win Game Fives– The better-seeded teams have dominated the Game Five action in conference finals series of late, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%) since 2013. In all 18 of those games, the outright winner covered the point spread as well.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND) 

* The team that lost Game Four is a solid Game Five play – teams that lost Game Four are on a 12-6 SU and ATS (66.7%) run in Game Five of the conference finals.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND) 

* Game Fives with closeout implication have been high scoring – Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have gone 7-1 Over (85.7%) when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with games producing 225.4 PPG.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-MIN (o/u at 220.5), IND-NYK (o/u at 222.5)

Trends by Seed Number

* Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 30-3 SU and 20-13 ATS (60.6%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.

* #1 seeds thrive after close wins – Top-seeded teams are on a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) conference finals run when coming off a same series single-digit win.

* #1 seeds are solid bets late in a series – in their last 20 Games Five-Six-Seven, #1 seeds are 14-9 SU and ATS (60.9%), with outright winners going a perfect 23-0 ATS in those games.
Systems Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN) 

* Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 14-17 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) in their last 31 tries in the underdog role, including 8-3 ATS since last year.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+8.5 at OKC) 

* #3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 12-27 SU and 15-22-2 ATS (40.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 12-17 ATS (41.4%) in their last 29 road conference finals games.

* #3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-22 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5 at NYK)

* #3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 18-15 SU and 21-11-1 ATS (65.6%) in their last 33 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND) 

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

* Road teams looking to close out series have fared well – Nine of the last 11 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 9-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+5 at NYK) 

* Lay the points in closeout games – Conference finals teams looking to close out a series have gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) when favored by more than 4.5 points since 2013, outscoring opponents by 13.3 PPG.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN) 

* Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 39 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 12 seasons and outright winners are 36-2-1 ATS. 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

NO QUALIFYING SCHEDULING SITUATIONS FOR GAME FIVE 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 154-61 SU and 126-88-1 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN), NEW YORK (-5 vs. IND)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 278-147 SU but just 180-232-13 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs MIN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 319-271 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NYK (o/u at 222.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS FOR GAME FIVE 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: INDIANA +5 (+0.9) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.1) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +8.5 (+0.9)
2. INDIANA +5 (+0.5) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-NYK OVER 222.5 (+0.2) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +5 (+0.9)
2. MINNESOTA +8.5 (+0.2)

Here is a head-to-head series NBA betting trend in play for WCF Game Five: 

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

(549) MINNESOTA at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs. MIN)

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