The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 88-72-3 (55%). Here is today’s result:

-INDIANA (+8 at CLE)

Recent h2h trend and a playoff trend favors IND + multiple extreme stats systems fade CLE

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* The number 220 has been key on totals over the L6 years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, UNDER has gone 36-17-1 (67.9%!), including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher!

System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

* Much to my surprise, 12 of the L17 (70.6%) first round game 7’s have gone OVER the total.

System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 205.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is on extended slide of 51-61 SU & 48-64 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest

Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at HOU)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 4. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the side of a HOME TEAM playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority HANDLE money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two PLAYOFF seasons, with HANDLE majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a R.O.I. of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.

System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and a R.O.I. of +3% since January ’23.

System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority HANDLE bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority NUMBER of BETS groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.

System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

•  First round home favorites of 4-points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 50-40 SU & 39-50-1 ATS (43.2%). 

System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs GSW)

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, UNDER the total is 83-65-5 (56.1%). In all games with totals above 218, OVER the total is 76-66-2 (53.5%).

System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 205.5)

First Round Trends by Game Number

• Game 7’s are usually competitive – Every fan loves a big game 7, and NBA fans should even more, as although the first-round game 7’s have gone heavily to the favorites (15-4 SU), they are just 8-10-1 ATS (44.4%) in those 19 do-or-die contests. 

• Much to my surprise, 12 of the L17 (70.6%) first round game 7’s have gone OVER the total.

System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 205.5)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

• Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 28-11 SU but 16-21-2 ATS (43.2%) in their L39 tries.

System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at HOU)

First Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 127-29 SU & 125-31 ATS (80.1%) run over the L6 postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the L6 first round playoff seasons are 112-20 SU & 109-21-2 ATS (83.8%).

Scoring Trends

  • It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 118-27 SU & 112-32-1 ATS (77.8%).
  • Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 23-116 SU & 30-108-1 ATS (21.7%) over the L8 seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

  • Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5-points or more have gone 14-6 SU but just 5-15 ATS (25%) since ’16! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 69-50-1 ATS (58%) in that span.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

  • The number 220 has been key on totals over the L6 years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, UNDER has gone 36-17-1 (67.9%!), including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher!

System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

Trends by Game Number

  • Home teams have held the edge in games 1’s of the second round series’ since 2016, going 21-11 SU & 18-13-1 ATS (58.1%). There have only been two road favorites during that span.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

  • Nineteen of the L32 (59.4%) non-neutral game 1’s of the second round NBA playoffs have gone OVER the total.

System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

  • The best game 1 favorites have been the biggest favorites, as those laying 6-points or more are on a 18-6 SU & 15-9 ATS (60%) surge.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

  • Game 1 home teams were just 1-3 SU & ATS in the ’24 second round to drop their 4-year record to 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS (75%).

System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

Trends by Seed Number

  • After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 50-38 SU & 43-44-1 ATS (49.4%) in their L88 second round playoff games.

System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

  • #1 seeds are on a 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS (68.8%) at home in the L3 seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU & 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

  • Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 11-35 SU & 16-28-1 ATS (35.6%) as such since 2015.

System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+8 at CLE)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* UNDER the total was 127-81 (61.1%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.

* UNDER the total was 86-58 (59.7%) since the start of last season when both teams in a NBA matchup were in the same 3rdin8+Days game scenario…two rested teams.

Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is on extended slide of 51-61 SU & 48-64 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest

Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at HOU)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:

In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 150-55 SU & 122-82-1 ATS (59.8%) run.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for

2) Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 252-134 SU but 179-199-8 ATS (47.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-36-1 ATS.

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts

8) NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 302-233 SU but 239-281-15 ATS (46%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-69-1 ATS.

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems

11) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 312-268 (53.8%) since 2021.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 205.5)

13) Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 339-308 SU but 292-335-18 ATS (46.6%) the next game over the L4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

Unusual defensive performances

16) NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 160-102 SU & 152-103-7 ATS (59.6%) since ‘21.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8 vs IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: 1. CLEVELAND -8 (+1.7)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: 1. HOUSTON -2.5 (+4.5)
2. CLEVELAND -8 (+0.2)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GSW-HOU UNDER 205.5 (-1.0)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: 1. CLEVELAND -8 (+1.5)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.5)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-CLE OVER 229.5 (+0.5)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GSW-HOU UNDER 205.5 (-1.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

(551) INDIANA at (552) CLEVELAND

* ROAD TEAMS are 11-3 ATS in L14 of IND-CLE h2h divisional rivalry

Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) HOUSTON

* HOUSTON is 4-1 ATS in L5 h2h games versus GSW

Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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