The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 5, 2025, and May 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 89-72-3 (55.3%). Here is today’s result: 

– IND-CLE UNDER 229.5
Two DK Betting Splits systems, multiple playoff trends/systems, and scheduling situation favors Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 13 of their last 41 games while going 15-26 ATS (36.6%).
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+9 at BOS) 

* Twenty of the last 33 (60.6%) non-neutral Game Ones of the second round NBA playoffs have gone Over the total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 213), DEN-OKC (o/u at 225.5), GSW-MIN (o/u at 208.5) 

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 100-62 SU and 96-63-3 ATS (60.4%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs IND) 

* Underdogs are 9-7 SU and 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+9.5 at OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% dropoff compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two PLAYOFF seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, DENVER ML, CLEVELAND ML, MINNESOTA ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and a ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – IND-CLE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-BOS, GSW-MIN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE 

Scoring Trends

–  It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 119-28 SU and 113-33-1 ATS (77.4%).

–  Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 23-116 SU and 30-108-1 ATS (21.7%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 14-7 SU but just 5-16 ATS (23.8%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 69-50-1 ATS (58%) in that span.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

–  The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 36-18-1 (66.7%!), including 13-1 when 227.5 or higher!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-OKC (o/u at 225.5), IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

Last Game Trends

–   Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 23-13 ATS (63.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

–  There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 34-18-1 Under (65.1%) the total in the last 53.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5) 

–   Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 21-27-1 ATS (43.8%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND)

Trends by Game Number

–   Home teams have held the edge in Game Ones of the second round series since 2016, going 21-12 SU and 18-14-1 ATS (56.3%). There have only been two road favorites during that span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs. GSW) 

– Twenty of the last 33 (60.6%) non-neutral Game Ones of the second round NBA playoffs have gone Over the total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 213), DEN-OKC (o/u at 225.5), GSW-MIN (o/u at 208.5) 

–  The best Game One favorites have been the biggest favorites, as those laying 6 points or more are on an 18-7 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs. GSW) 

–  Game 2 home teams were just 1-3 SU and ATS in the 2024 second round to drop their four-year record to 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%).

Trends by Seed Number

–  After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 50-39 SU and 43-45-1 ATS (48.9%) in their last 89 second round playoff games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

–  #1 seeds are on a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) at home in the last three seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

–  #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 37-21-1 (63.8%) in the last 59.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-BOS (o/u at 213)

–  Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 13 of their last 41 games while going 15-26 ATS (36.6%).
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+9 at BOS) 

–  Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 12-35 SU and 17-28-1 ATS (37.8%) as such since 2015.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at CLE) 

– First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 3-31 SU and 13-21 ATS (38.2%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at MIN)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 96-69 SU and 90-72-3 ATS (55.6%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs. GSW)

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 196-132 SU and 191-129 ATS (59.7%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 73-35 SU and 67-39-2 ATS (63.2%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-6.5 vs. GSW) 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 64-57 SU and 65-53-3 ATS (55.1%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

* Over the total was 122-84 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.

* Over the total was 63-45 (58.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DEN-OKC (o/u at 226), GSW-MIN (o/u at 208.5) 

* Under the total was 63-28 (69.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5) 

* Under the total is on a 91-47-1 (65.9%) in the last 139 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-OKC (o/u at 226), IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5), GSW-MIN (o/u at 208.5) 

* Under the total was 127-82 (60.8%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 86-59 (59.3%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 213), IND-CLE (o/u at 229.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 52-61 SU and 49-64 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at MIN) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 150-56 SU and 122-83-1 ATS (59.5%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN), CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the lst four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 112-90 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 290-226 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-OKC and IND-CLE (*if they become double-digit spreads)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 278-146 SU but just 180-231-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 100-62 SU and 96-63-3 ATS (60.4%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs. IND) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 313-268 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 225.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 294-314 SU and 271-329-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+9.5 at CLE), BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 130-23 SU but 67-83-3 ATS (44.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (*if they become a double-digit favorite vs DEN, -9.5 currently)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 260-309-4 ATS (45.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 63-86-1 ATS (42.3%) in the next game, including 29-43 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. DEN) 

NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+4.0)
2. INDIANA +9.5 (+1.8)
3. NEW YORK +9 (+0.1) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+2.7) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +9 (+1.2)
2. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+0.3) 

Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+0.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.4) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-CLE OVER 229.5 (+0.4)

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-MIN UNDER 208.5 (-2.6)
2. DEN-OKC UNDER 226 (-0.9)
3. NYK-BOS UNDER 213 (-0.4) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+3.3)
2. INDIANA +9.5 (+2.2)
3. NEW YORK +9 (+0.8) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+3.5) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: IND-CLE OVER 229.5 (+0.6) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-OKC UNDER 226 (-2.9)
2. GSW-MIN UNDER 208.5 (-1.8)
3. NYK-BOS UNDER 213 (-1.7) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all the games:

Monday, May 5, 2025

(553) NEW YORK at (554) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games versus NYK
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON 

(585) DENVER at (586) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 9-7 SU and 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the DEN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

(583) INDIANA at (584) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the IND-CLE head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight of the GSW-MIN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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