The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 7, 2025, and May 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 89-73-3 (54.9%). Here are today’s results: 

– NYK-BOS UNDER 210.5
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, team strength system #5, and Makinen effective strength ratings projection all favor Under 

– DEN-OKC UNDER 229.5
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, team strength system #5, extreme stat system #10, and Makinen bettors ratings projection all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by six points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 17-6 SU and ATS (74%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 23-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN) 

* Underdogs are 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS in last 17 of Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+10.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 152-56 SU and 123-83-2 ATS (59.7%) in their last 208 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two PLAYOFF seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, DENVER ML, MINNESOTA ML 

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and a ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DEN-OKC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-BOS, GSW-MIN

Scoring Trends

–  It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 121-30 SU and 115-35-1 ATS (76.7%).

–   Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 24-117 SU and 31-109-1 ATS (22.1%) over the last eight seasons.

Trends by Line/Total Range

–  Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 14-9 SU but just 5-18 ATS (21.7%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 69-52-1 ATS (57%) in that span.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW) 

–   The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 36-20-1 (64.3%!), including 13-2 when 227.5 or higher!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 229.5)

Last Game Trends

–   Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 23-14 ATS (62.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW) 

–   Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by six points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 17-6 SU and ATS (74%) record over the last four postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 23-0 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN) 

–   There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 34-19-1 Under (64.2%) the total in the last 54.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 210.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 229.5) 

–   Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 21-28-1 ATS (42.9%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW)

Trends by Game Number

–   Game Two home teams were just 1-3 SU and ATS in the 2024 second round to drop their four-year record to 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%). These are 0-1 SU and ATS in 2025.

Trends by Seed Number

–   After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 50-41 SU and 43-47-1 ATS (47.8%) in their last 91 second round playoff games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN) 

–  #1 seeds are on a 12-7 SU and 11-8 ATS (57.9%) at home in the last three seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN)

–  #3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 37-21-2 (63.8%) in the last 60.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-BOS (o/u at 210.5) 

–  Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 14 of their last 42 games while going 16-26 ATS (38.1%).
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+10.5 at BOS) 

–  Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 13-35 SU and 18-28-1 ATS (39.1%) as such since 2015.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+10.5 at OKC) 

–  First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded fifth or lower have gone 4-31 SU and 14-21 ATS (40%) when playing as dogs of six points or more.

–  Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there”, as they are just 11-22 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.
Systems Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+10 at MIN)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 96-72 SU and 90-75-3 ATS (54.5%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 64-58 SU and 65-54-3 ATS (54.6%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK) 

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 17-13 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW) 

* Under the total was 63-29 (68.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 127-83-1 (60.5%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 86-60-1 (58.9%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.

* Under the total was 40-21 (65.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.

* Under the total was 24-11 (68.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-BOS (o/u at 210.5) 

* Under the total is on a 92-49-1 (65.2%) in the last 142 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-BOS (o/u at 210.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 229.5), GSW-MIN (o/u at 202) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 53-61 SU and 50-64 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+10 at MIN) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 112-91 (55.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 290-226 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-MIN (o/u at 202)
UNDER – NYK-BOS (o/u at 210.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 229.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 152-56 SU and 123-83-2 ATS (59.7%) in their last 208 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-10 vs. GSW) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 100-63 SU and 96-64-3 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. NYK), OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs. DEN) 

Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 60-38-1 (61.2%) in their last 99 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 229.5) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 160-103 SU and 152-104-7 ATS (59.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+10.5 at BOS) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +10.5 (+2.6)
2. GOLDEN STATE +10 (+2.1)
3. DENVER +10.5 (+0.4) 

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+2.2)
2. MINNESOTA -10 (+0.4) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-OKC OVER 229.5 (+0.6) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-BOS UNDER 210.5 (-2.3)
2. GSW-MIN UNDER 202 (-0.1) 

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK +10.5 (+3.0)
2. GOLDEN STATE +10 (+1.8)
3. DENVER +10.5 (+0.2) 

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-BOS OVER 210.5 (+2.7)
2. GSW-MIN OVER 202 (+0.4) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-OKC UNDER 229.5 (-0.1) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all the games:

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

(555) NEW YORK at (556) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games versus NYK
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON 

(557) DENVER at (558) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 of  the DEN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER

Thursday, May 8, 2025

(559) GOLDEN STATE at (560) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the GSW-MIN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE

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