Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
– LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DET)
Several extreme stats systems fade DET + road teams have been good in the head-to-head series recently
– POR-UTA UNDER 233.5
Several scheduling situations + DK betting splits systems favor Under
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 122-125 SU but 128-104-5 ATS (55.2%), including 91-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+12 at OKC)
* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-71 SU and 106-67-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+4.5 at PHI), BROOKLYN (-3 at WSH)
* Under the total is on a 72-33-1 (68.6%) in the last 106 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-UTA, CHA-SAC, DEN-IND, BKN-WSH, CHI-PHI
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ATLANTA, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, DETROIT, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHILADELPHIA ML, ATLANTA ML, SACRAMENTO ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-WSH, DEN-IND, MIA-ATL, POR-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – DEN-IND, CHI-PHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-WSH, MIA-ATL, POR-UTA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 150-100 SU but 109-138-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/24: FADE SACRAMENTO vs. Charlotte
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-11 vs CHA)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 85-64 SU and 80-66-3 ATS (54.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
2/24: SACRAMENTO vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-11 vs. CHA)
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 80-45 SU but 57-67-1 ATS (46%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/24: FADE SACRAMENTO vs. Charlotte
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-11 vs. CHA)
* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 86-43 SU and 76-48-5 ATS (61.3%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/24: ATLANTA vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1 vs. MIA)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 44-47 SU and 50-39-2 ATS (56.2%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/24: ATLANTA vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1 vs. MIA)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 23-24 SU and 27-20 ATS (57.4%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/24: ATLANTA vs. Miami
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1 vs. MIA)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 26-36 SU and 22-39-1 ATS (36.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
2/24: Fade WASHINGTON vs. Brooklyn
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3 vs. BKN)
* Under the total was 116-95-1 (55%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/24: Under the total in UTAH-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
* Over the total was 94-67 (58.4%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.
2/24: Over the total in ATLANTA-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 228.5)
* Over the total was 45-34 (57%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
2/24: Over the total in ATLANTA-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 228.5)
* Over the total is 39-23 (62.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/24: Over the total in WASHINGTON-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-WSH (o/u at 215.5)
* Under the total was 13-1 (92.9%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on One Day Rest.
2/24: Under the total in UTAH-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
* Under the total was 110-68 (61.8%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
2/24: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-SAC (o/u at 233)
* UNDER the total is on a 72-33-1 (68.6%) in the last 106 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/24: Under the total in PORTLAND-UTAH
2/24: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-CHARLOTTE
2/24: Under the total in INDIANA-DENVER
2/24: Under the total in WASHINGTON-BROOKLYN
2/24: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-CHICAGO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-UTA, CHA-SAC, DEN-IND, BKN-WSH, CHI-PHI
* Under the total was 33-17 (66%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/24: Under the total in ATLANTA-MIAMI
2/24: Under the total in UTAH-PORTLAND
2/24: Under the total in INDIANA-DENVER
2/24: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-CHICAGO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ATL, POR-UTA, DEN-IND, CHI-PHI
* Over the total was 19-10 (65.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/24: Over the total in ATLANTA-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 228.5)
* MIAMI is on a 19-15 SU and 21-12-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
2/24: MIAMI at Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1 at ATL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-71 SU and 106-67-3 ATS (61.3%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+4.5 at PHI), BROOKLYN (-3 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 229-44 SU but just 126-141-6 ATS (47.2%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-11 vs CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 100-82 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 195-163 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-SAC (o/u at 233)
UNDER – MIN-OKC (o/u at 229)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 233-129 SU but 164-190-8 ATS (46.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-5.5 at UTA)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favore,d have gone 145-88 SU but 104-125-4 ATS (45.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 89-111 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (*if they become favorites vs MIA, +1 currently)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 72-54 SU and 66-58-2 ATS (53.2%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12 vs MIN)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 122-125 SU but 128-104-5 ATS (55.2%), including 91-55-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+12 at OKC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 291-249 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ATL (o/u at 228.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 270-285 SU and 246-302-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+2.5 vs. LAC), OKLAHOMA CITY (-12 vs. MIN)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 300-281 SU but 260-303-16 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+2.5 vs. LAC), ATLANTA (+1 vs. MIA), PORTLAND (-5.5 at UTA)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 150-170 SU and 144-167-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-5.5 at UTA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 146-99 SU and 140-98-7 ATS (58.8%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-5.5 at UTA)
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 181-70 SU and 133-115-3 ATS (53.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-11 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 72-85 SU but 88-67-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 at PHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 230-281-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-4.5 vs. CHI)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +11 (+2.4)
2. DETROIT +2.5 (+2.0)
3. UTAH +5.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -3 (+3.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -12 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +11 (+4.1)
2. CHICAGO +4.5 (+3.8)
3. UTAH +5.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -3 (+0.6)
2. DENVER -5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-PHI OVER 233 (+0.5)
2. BKN-WSH OVER 216 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 229 (-2.9)
2. CHA-SAC UNDER 233 (-2.3)
3. POR-UTA UNDER 233.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. INDIANA +5 (+1.4)
2. CHARLOTTE +11 (+1.2)
3. DETROIT +2.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN -3 (+3.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -12 (+1.5)
3. MIAMI -1 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-ATL OVER 228.5 (+3.6)
2. CHI-PHI OVER 233 (+1.3)
3. LAC-DET OVER 223 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-OKC UNDER 229 (-2.9)
2. BKN-WSH UNDER 216 (-2.7)
3. POR-UTA UNDER 233.5 (-2.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA Betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(549) BROOKLYN at (550) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the BKN-WSH h2h series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
(553) CHICAGO at (554) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total has converted in seven straight games between CHI and PHI
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the CHI-PHI series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(555) LA CLIPPERS at (556) DETROIT
* Road teams are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 of the LAC-DET non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(559) MINNESOTA at (560) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the MIN-OKC divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(561) PORTLAND at (562) UTAH
* UTAH is 5-1 ATS in the last six games versus Portland
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(563) CHARLOTTE at (564) SACRAMENTO
* CHARLOTTE is 7-2 ATS in the last nine visits to Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
