The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at OKC)
Systems fade OKC after blowout win + MIL has been good recently head-to-head. 

– DETROIT (-4 vs ATL)
Scheduling situation favors Detroit and losing streak system fades ATL 

– ORLANDO (+3 at GSW)
Scheduling trend favors Orlando and underdogs are good in head-to-head series 

– WASHINGTON (+4 at CHA)
Multiple systems favor Washington (also fresh off losing streak)

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 144-97 SU and 137-97-7 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs. IND) 

* Over the total was 17-8 (68%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b, and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DET (o/u at 235)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX, ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, SAN ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on the home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, INDIANA, ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE 

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DET, WSH-CHA, MIL-OKC, SAS-MEM, ORL-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the umber of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-UTA
UNDER – NOP-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-CHA, ORL-GSW

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 149-99 SU but 108-137-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/3: Fade GOLDEN STATE vs. Orlando
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. ORL) 

* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 79-45 SU but 56-67-1 ATS (45.5%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/3: Fade GOLDEN STATE vs. Orlando
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. ORL) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 41-42 SU and 47-34-2 ATS (58%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
2/3: DETROIT vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4 vs. ATL) 

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 22-21 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/3: DETROIT vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4 vs. ATL) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 23-35 SU and 21-36-1 ATS (36.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
2/3: Fade MEMPHIS vs. San Antonio
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs. SAS)

* Under the total was 115-90-1 (56.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
2/3: Under the total in DETROIT-ATLANTA
2/3: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-WASHINGTON
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DET (o/u at 235), WSH-CHA (o/u at 218) 

* Over the total was 89-64 (58.2%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
2/3: Over the total in DETROIT-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DET (o/u at 235) 

* Over the total was 53-47 (53%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
2/3: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-OKC (o/u at 232) 

* Over the total is 37-21 (63.8%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/3: Over the total in MEMPHIS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MEM (o/u at 242) 

* Under the total is on a 64-27-1 (70.3%) in the last 92 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/3: Under the total in INDIANA-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-UTA (o/u at 240) 

* Under the total was 27-13 (67.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/3: Under the total in UTAH-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-UTA (o/u at 240)

* Over the total was 17-8 (68%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
2/3: Over the total in DETROIT-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DET (o/u at 235) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 33-83 SU and 45-67-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/3: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Washington
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-4 vs. WSH) 

* ORLANDO is on a 16-19 SU and 22-13 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
2/3: ORLANDO at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+3 at GSW) 

* PORTLAND is 30-67 SU and 37-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/3: Fade PORTLAND vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+5 vs PHX) 

* DETROIT is on a 15-5 Under the total run when playing a 3rdStraightHome game
2/3: Under the total in DETROIT-ATLANTA
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-DET (o/u at 235)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 141-50 SU and 114-76-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs. HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 104-70 SU and 105-66-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+4 at CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 222-41 SU but just 123-135-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. MIL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-81 (54.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 188-160 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 252-195 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-OKC (o/u at 232), NOP-DEN (o/u at 241)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 226-128 SU but 160-187-7 ATS (46.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. MIL) 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 70-53 SU and 66-55-2 ATS (54.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-7.5 at UTA) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 119-120 SU but 125-99-5 ATS (55.8%), including 88-51-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+4 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at OKC), NEW ORLEANS (+11 at DEN)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 276-218 SU but 215-265-14 ATS (44.8%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 38-66 ATS.
System Match (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs. MIL), PORTLAND (+5 vs. PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 281-247 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-GSW (o/u at 212.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 295-273 SU but 254-297-15 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at OKC) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 149-168 SU and 143-165-9 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at OKC)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 144-97 SU and 137-97-7 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+7.5 vs IND)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 179-68 SU and 132-112-3 ATS (54.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs SAS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 70-83 SU but 85-66-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4 at DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 226-276-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 29-128 SU and 67-85-5 ATS (44.1%).
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4 at DET)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +7.5 (+3.0)
2. PORTLAND +5 (+2.4)
3. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NEW YORK -6.5 (+1.2)
MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.2)
3. DENVER -11 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +7.5 (+2.6)
2. ORLANDO +3 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +11 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+0.7)
2. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+0.3)
3. PHOENIX -5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-OKC OVER 232 (+3.3)
2. HOU-NYK OVER 224 (+1.4)
3. PHX-POR OVER 229 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-MEM UNDER 242 (-4.5)
2. ORL-GSW UNDER 212.5 (-2.8)
3. WSH-CHA UNDER 218.5 (-0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTAH +7.5 (+2.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+1.7)
3. PORTLAND +5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+0.9)
2. DENVER -11 (+0.7)
3. NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-MIN OVER 221.5 (+2.6)
2. MIL-OKC OVER 232 (+2.5)
3. WSH-CHA OVER 218.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-MEM UNDER 242 (-3.3)
2. ORL-GSW UNDER 212.5 (-2.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) ATLANTA at (502) DETROIT
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the ATL-DET series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(503) WASHINGTON at (504) CHARLOTTE
* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the WSH-CHA divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(505) HOUSTON at (506) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 5-1 ATS in the last six games hosting Houston
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(507) SACRAMENTO at (508) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 9-0 SU and ATS in the last nine of the SAC-MIN series
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO 

(509) MILWAUKEE at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY
* MILWAUKEE is on runs of 7-1 SU and 5-1 ATS versus Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE 

(511) SAN ANTONIO at (512) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the SAS-MEM divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(515) NEW ORLEANS at (516) DENVER
* Home teams are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the NOP-DEN series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(517) PHOENIX at (518) PORTLAND
* PORTLAND is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 games versus Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(519) ORLANDO at (520) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the ORL-GSW cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

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