Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 of the Memphis-Houston divisional rivalry at Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-2 vs. MEM)
*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-211 SU but 207-258-13 ATS (44.5%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8 vs. DET)
* MIAMI is on a 19-11 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6 at LAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, DETROIT, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – NEW YORK ML, HOUSTON ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-WSH, DET-NYK, SAS-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – GSW-TOR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIA-LAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Under the total was 111-84-1 (56.9%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/13: Under the total in NEW YORK-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-NYK (o/u at 223)
* MIAMI is on a 19-11 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
1/13: MIAMI at LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+6 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 201-38 SU but just 112-123-4 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-13.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 175-149 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-191 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-WSH (o/u at 223)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 216-125 SU but 154-181-6 ATS (46%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8 vs. DET)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 267-211 SU but 207-258-13 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8 vs. DET)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 279-238 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-HOU (o/u at 236)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 258-274 SU and 235-290-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+8 at NYK)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +6.5 (+3.7)
2. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+0.8)
3. MEMPHIS +2 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -8 (+2.1)
2. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +2 (+3.2)
2. TORONTO +6.5 (+2.3)
3. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -8 (+2.6)
2. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+1.3)
3. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-NYK OVER 223.5 (+1.2)
2. MIA-LAC OVER 215 (+0.9)
3. SAS-LAL OVER 220.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-TOR UNDER 229 (-0.6)
2. MIN-WSH UNDER 223 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +6.5 (+3.2)
2. MEMPHIS +2 (+1.2)
3. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -8 (+2.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -6 (+1.1)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-LAL OVER 220.5 (+3.2)
2. MIN-WSH OVER 223 (+2.0)
3. DET-NYK OVER 223.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-LAC UNDER 215 (-1.8)
2. MEM-HOU UNDER 235.5 (-0.5)
3. GSW-TOR UNDER 229 (-0.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(547) MINNESOTA at (548) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the series with Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between MIN and WSH at Washington
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(551) DETROIT at (552) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the DET-NYK series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DET-NYK series at New York
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(553) MEMPHIS at (554) HOUSTON
* Favorites are 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 of the MEM-HOU divisional rivalry at Houston
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
