The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 of the Detroit-Houston non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+8 at HOU) 

* NEW YORK is 22-7 Under the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 235.5) 

* Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 217-126 SU but 154-182-7 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs. MIN), NEW ORLEANS (-11 vs. UTA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, BOSTON, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – HOUSTON ML, NEW YORK ML, CLEVELAND ML, LA CLIPPERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, UTAH ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-MEM, CHI-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 141-98 SU but 104-132-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
1/20: Fade NEW YORK vs. Atlanta
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6 vs. ATL) 

* NEW YORK is 22-7 Under the total since ’20-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
1/20: Under the total in NEW YORK-ATLANTA
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 208-38 SU but just 115-126-5 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10 at GSW)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 180-151 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 249-192 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-GSW (o/u at 224), UTA-NOP (o/u at 232) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 217-126 SU but 154-182-7 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs. MIN), NEW ORLEANS (-11 vs. UTA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 269-215 SU but 209-262-13 ATS (44.4%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 37-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs MIN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 279-243 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-HOU (o/u at 222.5), PHX-CLE (o/u at 236)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 289-263 SU and 249-288-13 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-11 vs. UTA) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 175-65 SU and 129-108-3 ATS (54.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ALL): DALLAS (-6 at CHA), NEW YORK (-6 vs. ATL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-65 SU but 52-43 ATS (54.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO (+5.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 69-79 SU but 81-65-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+5.5 at LAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +6 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+2.4)
2. CLEVELAND -7 (+1.5)
3(tie). MEMPHIS -5.5 (+1.4)
NEW YORK -6 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +7 (+2.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE +10 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -5.5 (+5.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+3.7)
3. NEW YORK -6 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-NOP OVER 232 (+3.1)
2. CHI-LAC OVER 227 (+1.8)
3. MIN-MEM OVER 235 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-HOU UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)
2. DAL-CHA UNDER 223.5 (-0.7)
3. BOS-GSW UNDER 224 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHARLOTTE +6 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS -5.5 (+2.7)
2. CLEVELAND -7 (+1.8)
3. BOSTON -10 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-LAC OVER 227 (+5.0)
2. UTA-NOP OVERR 232 (+2.2)
3. MIN-MEM OVERR 235 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-GSW UNDER 224 (-2.1)
2. DET-HOU UNDER 222.5 (-2.0)
3. DAL-CHA UNDER 223.5 (-1.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) DETROIT at (518) HOUSTON
* Underdogs are 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 of the DET-HOU non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(519) MINNESOTA at (520) MEMPHIS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six games of the MIN-MEM series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(521) ATLANTA at (522) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the ATL-NYK series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS 

(525) BOSTON at (526) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games versus Boston (including 4-0 SU and ATS at home)
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(579) CHICAGO at (580) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites have covered five straight ATS in the CHI-LAC series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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