Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 games when SAS visits Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total in SAS-CHI (o/u at 236.5)
* Under the total is on a 63-23-1 (73.3%) in the last 87 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-PHI (o/u at 223.5)
*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 264-208 SU but 205-255-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-6.5 vs. POR), PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. PHX), SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. MIA)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 68-77 SU and 80-63-3 ATS (55.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5 at MEM)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, INDIANA, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN ANTONIO, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MILWAUKEE, INDIANA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. While majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-DET, DAL-MEM, MIA-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-CHI
UNDER – DAL-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-NYK, LAC-MIN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 19-32 SU and 18-32-1 ATS (36%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/6: Fade SACRAMENTO vs. Miami
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. MIA)
* Under the total was 110-82-1 (57.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/6: Under the total in DETROIT-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-DET (o/u at 225.5)
* OVER the total was 52-40 (56.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
1/6: Over the total in NEW YORK-ORLANDO
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-NYK (o/u at 210)
* Over the total is 32-19 (62.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/6: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-SAC (o/u at 223)
* Under the total is on a 63-23-1 (73.3%) in the last 87 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/6: Under the total in PHOENIX-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-PHI (o/u at 223.5)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 36-40 SU and 25-50-1 ATS skid in the last 76 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/6: Fade MILWAUKEE at Toronto
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7.5 at TOR)
* TORONTO is on a 31-17 SU and ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
1/6: TORONTO vs. Milwaukee
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+7.5 vs MIL)
* DETROIT is on a 15-4 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
1/6: Under the total in DETROIT-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-DET (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-146 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-187 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-NYK (o/u at 210), IND-BKN (o/u at 223)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 139-83 SU but 99-119-4 ATS (45.4%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is an 84-106 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-12.5 vs. ORL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 264-208 SU but 205-255-12 ATS (44.6%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-6.5 vs. POR), PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. PHX), SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. MIA)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 255-273 SU and 232-289-7 ATS (44.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+7.5 vs. MIL), CHICAGO (+3 vs. SAS)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 286-260 SU and 246-286-12 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3 vs. SAS)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 174-64 SU and 128-107-3 ATS (54.5%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-12.5 vs ORL), MEMPHIS (-5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 68-77 SU and 80-63-3 ATS (55.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5 at MEM)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +2 (+2.6)
2. MIAMI +3.5 (+1.9)
3. CHICAGO +3 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -12.5 (+2.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +2 (+5.5)
2. BROOKLYN +10 (+3.5)
3. ORLANDO +12.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS -5 (+0.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.4)
3. SAN ANTONIO -3 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-BKN OVER 223 (+3.6)
2. SAS-CHI OVER 236.5 (+1.2)
3. MIA-SAC OVER 223 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-2.5)
2. ORL-NYK UNDER 210 (-2.3)
3. POR-DET UNDER 225.5 (-1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CLIPPERS +2 (+2.3)
2. BROOKLYN +10 (+2.0)
3. CHICAGO +3 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+1.4)
2. NEW YORK -12.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-MEM OVER 232 (+3.9)
2. IND-BKN OVER 223 (+3.2)
3. MIA-SAC OVER 223 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). PHX-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-1.5)
ORL-NYK UNDER 210 (-1.5)
3. POR-DET UNDER 225.5 (-1.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(513) PORTLAND at (514) DETROIT
* PORTLAND is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games versus Detroit, but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS
(517) ORLANDO at (518) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the ORL-NYK series
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 matchups
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(521) INDIANA at (522) BROOKLYN
* Underdogs are 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 of the IND-BKN series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(523) DALLAS at (524) MEMPHIS
* DALLAS has won six straight ATS in meetings at Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(525) LA CLIPPERS at (526) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the LAC-MIN series at Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 games when SAS visits Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(529) MIAMI at (530) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games between MIA and SAC in Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS
