The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 40-33-1 (54.8%). Here are today’s results: 

PHOENIX (+4 at MEM)
Extreme stat system #7 fades MEM + two Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trend favors PHX 

DEN-OKC OVER 238
Multiple general scheduling situations favor OVER + OKC trends Over in their 3rd straight home games 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 41-21 SU and 42-19-1 ATS (68.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-17.5 vs UTA)

* Over the total was 30-19 (61.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAC (o/u at 219)

* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Lakers-Nets cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-6.5 at BKN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, INDIANA, DENVER, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, HOUSTON, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, TORONTO, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, SAN ANTONIO 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-MEM, IND-CHI, ORL-HOU, NYK-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-ATL, WSH-TOR, DAL-SAS, POR-GSW
UNDER – IND-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAL-BKN, CHA-MIA
UNDER – ORL-HOU, NYK-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-MEM, IND-CHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 88-44 SU and 78-49-5 ATS (61.4%) hosting teams playing an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/10: BOSTON vs. Utah
3/10: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Denver
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-17.5 vs UTA), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 vs DEN) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 32-42 SU BUT 41-32-3 ATS (56.2%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/10: DENVER at Oklahoma City
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+9 at OKC) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 41-21 SU and 42-19-1 ATS (68.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/10: BOSTON vs. Utah
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-17.5 vs. UTA) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 42-27 SU and 42-24-3 ATS (63.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/10: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Denver
3/10: MIAMI vs. Charlotte
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 vs. DEN), MIAMI (-9.5 vs. CHA) 

* Under the total was 123-96-1 (56.2%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/10: Under the total in MIAMI-CHARLOTTE
3/10: Under the total in TORONTO-WASHINGTON
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-MIA (o/u at 215.5), WSH-TOR (o/u at 231.5)

* Over the total was 97-81 (54.5%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
3/10: Over the total in PHOENIX-MEMPHIS
3/10: Over the total in DENVER-OKLAHOMA CITY
3/10: Over the total in UTAH-BOSTON
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHX-MEM (o/u at 243.5), DEN-OKC (o/u at 238), UTA-BOS (o/u at 229) 

* Over the total was 46-36 (56.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
3/10: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 238) 

* Over the total was 30-19 (61.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2 Days Rest.
3/10: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-NEW YORK
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAC (o/u at 219) 

* Over the total was 58-52 (52.7%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/10: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-PORTLAND
3/10: Over the total in ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-GSW (o/u at 233.5), PHI-ATL (o/u at 235) 

* DALLAS is 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS since start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
3/10: DALLAS at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 at SAS) 

* INDIANA is 17-33 SU and 17-32-1 ATS in its last 50 3rd Straight Road games
3/10: Fade INDIANA at Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (-5 at CHI)

* MIAMI is on an 11-10 SU but 9-12 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/10: Fade MIAMI vs. Charlotte
Trend Match (FADE ATS): MIAMI (-9.5 vs. CHA) 

* TORONTO is on a 32-21 SU and 32-20-1 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
3/10: TORONTO vs. Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-7 vs. WSH) 

* UTAH is 14-22 SU BUT 27-9 ATS in its last 36 3rd Straight Road games
3/10: UTAH at Boston
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+17.5 at BOS) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-11 OVER the total in its last 36 3rd Straight Home games
3/10: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-DENVER
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 238)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-51 SU and 120-78-1 ATS (60.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 vs. DEN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 240-44 SU but just 133-145-6 ATS (47.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): BOSTON (-17.5 vs. UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-85 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 204-165 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 264-203 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-BOS (o/u at 229.5)
UNDER – POR-GSW (o/u at 233.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-91 SU and 61-83-5 ATS (42.4%) slide, including 32-52-3 ATS in the last 87 games and 20-35 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs. NYK) 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 240-131 SU but 169-194-8 ATS (46.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. ORL)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 149-89 SU but 108-126-4 ATS (46.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last six seasons. Included among this is a 91-112 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs. DAL) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 124-126 SU but 130-105-5 ATS (55.3%), including 92-56-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-5 at CHI)

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 268-140 SU but just 176-219-13 ATS (44.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs. PHX)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 286-225 SU but 226-270-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5 vs. ORL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 301-255 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-GSW (o/u at 232.5)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 187-73 SU and 138-119-3 ATS (53.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs. DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 34-70 SU but 57-47 ATS (54.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY ATS): UTAH (+17.5 at BOS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 112-20 SU but 57-72-4 ATS (44.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): BOSTON (-17.5 vs. UTA), GOLDEN STATE (-12 vs. POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (195-216 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (266-265 ATS, 50.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): DALLAS (+6.5 at SAS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 74-86 SU but 90-68-3 ATS (57%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+6.5 at SAS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 240-288-3 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (+6.5 vs. LAL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9 vs. DEN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +4 (+2.1)
2(tie). CHICAGO +6 (+1.4)
SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -17.5 (+4.9)
2. ATLANTA -10.5 (+2.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +6 (+5.9)
2. UTAH +17.5 (+3.9)
3. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -10.5 (+1.4)
2. MEMPHIS -4 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-TOR OVER 231.5 (+0.9)
2. LAL-BKN OVER 215.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-3.6)
2. CHA-MIA UNDER 215.5 (-3.1)
3. DEN-OKC UNDER 238 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +4 (+2.7)
2. CHICAGO +6 (+1.8)
2. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -17.5 (+7.5)
2. ATLANTA -10.5 (+2.0)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-BKN OVER 215.5 (+4.0)
2. DEN-OKC OVER 238 (+3.4)
3. NYK-SAC OVER 219 (+3.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-GSW UNDER 233.5 (-3.4)
2. CHA-MIA UNDER 215.5 (-3.3)
3. IND-CHI UNDER 242.5 (-2.6) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(533) LA LAKERS at (534) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the LAL-BKN cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS 

(535) PHILADELPHIA at (536) ATLANTA
* Favorites are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of PHI-ATL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
* Over the total has converted in five straight head-to-head meetings
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(539) WASHINGTON at (540) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games versus WSH but did lose to them two days ago
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS 

(541) CHARLOTTE at (542) MIAMI
* Home teams are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine of the CHA-MIA head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(543) PHOENIX at (544) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the PHX-MEM head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(547) ORLANDO at (548) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the ORL-HOU head-to-head series at Houston
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the head-to-head meetings at Houston
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(549) DENVER at (550) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of DEN-OKC head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(551) DALLAS at (552) SAN ANTONIO
* DALLAS is 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games versus SAS
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(555) NEW YORK at (556) SACRAMENTO
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the NYK-SAC cross-country series at Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
* NEW YORK is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games versus SAC
Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

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