Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 49-40-1 (55.1%). Here are today’s results:
– SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs. MEM)
Three DK Betting Splits systems, extreme stat system #17, streak system #6, and recent head-to-head trend all favor SAC
– DET-NOP UNDER 232.5
Three DK Betting Splits systems, both Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over
– HOUSTON (-15.5 vs. PHI)
DK Betting Split system #6, three scheduling situations, three Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor HOU
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Road teams are 14-2 ATS in the last 16 of the Wizards-Trail Blazers head-to-head cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+6 at POR)
* Over the total is 43-28 (60.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-UTA (o/u at 241)
* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-80-1 ATS (42%) in the next game, including 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs IND)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO, TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, INDIANA, SACRAMENTO, TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT, CHICAGO, TORONTO, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, SAN ANTONIO
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-NYK, IND-MIN, DET-NOP, MEM-SAC, DEN-GSW, TOR-PHX, WSH-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-NOP
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 44-29 SU and 43-27-3 ATS (61.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/17: HOUSTON vs. Philadelphia
Systems Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs. PHI)
* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 34-42 SU but 43-32-3 ATS (57.3%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
3/17: PHILADELPHIA at Houston
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+15.5 at HOU)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 44-29 SU and 43-27-3 ATS (61.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/17: MINNESOTA vs. Indiana
Systems Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs IND)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 33-38 SU and 27-42-2 ATS (39.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/17: FADE UTAH vs. Chicago
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+6 vs CHI)
* Under the total was 125-98-1 (56.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/17: Under the total in MINNESOTA-INDIANA
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER for IND-MIN (o/u at 229)
* Over the total was 101-86 (54%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
3/17: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 221.5)
* Over the total is 43-28 (60.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/17: Over the total in UTAH-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-UTA (o/u at 241)
* INDIANA is 17-34 SU and 17-33-1 ATS in its last 51 3rd Straight Road games
3/17: Fade INDIANA at Minnesota
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+7.5 at MIN)
* TORONTO is 23-13 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
3/17: Over the total in TORONTO-PHOENIX
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-PHX (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 243-44 SU but just 134-147-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs. PHI)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 105-88 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 206-167 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 266-208 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 221.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 271-141 SU but just 176-223-13 ATS (44.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs. PHI), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs. DEN), PORTLAND (-6 vs. WSH)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 188-74 SU and 138-121-3 ATS (53.3%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs. MEM)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 118-21 SU BUT 59-77-3 ATS (43.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (-15.5 vs PHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 75-86 SU but 91-68-3 ATS (57.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 243-293-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-132 SU and 70-87-5 ATS (44.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+7.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs. IND), UTAH (+6 vs. CHI), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 vs. DEN)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-80-1 ATS (42%) in the next game, including 27-40 ATS (40.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 vs. IND)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+1.5)
2(tie). MIAMI +7.5 (+0.4)
NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -15.5 (+2.1)
2. PHOENIX -8.5 (+1.6)
3. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+5.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+2.1)
3. MIAMI +7.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -15.5 (+1.1)
2(tie). CHICAGO -6 (+0.8)
PORTLAND -6 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-LAL OVER 228 (+6.2)
2. IND-MIN OVER 228.5 (+1.0)
3. MEM-SAC OVER 237.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-2.1)
2. CHI-UTA UNDER 242.5 (-2.0)
3. PHI-HOU UNDER 221.5 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +7.5 (+1.2)
SAN ANTONIO +8.5 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI +7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX -8.5 (+2.7)
2. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+1.9)
3. HOUSTON -15.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-LAL OVER 228 (+6.9)
2. WSH-POR OVER 231 (+4.8)
3. DEN-GSW OVER 236.5 (+3.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHI-HOU UNDER 221.5 (-2.1)
2. DET-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-2.0)
3. CHI-UTA UNDER 242.5 (-1.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(503) INDIANA at (504) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine games when IND visits Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
* MINNESOTA has covered five straight ATS versus Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
(505) PHILADELPHIA at (506) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the PHI-HOU head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* Favorites are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(507) DETROIT at (508) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DET-NOP head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(509) CHICAGO at (510) UTAH
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups between CHI and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(511) MEMPHIS at (512) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games between MEM and SAC in Sacramento
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO
(513) DENVER at (514) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of DEN-GSW head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(515) TORONTO at (516) PHOENIX
* TORONTO is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings with Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS
(517) WASHINGTON at (518) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 14-2 ATS in the last 16 of the WSH-POR head-to-head cross-country series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS
