Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Take of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 33-28. Here is today’s result:
– GSW-CHA UNDER 228.5
Multiple Makinen ratings projections and recent head-to-head trend favors Under
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is 13-2 in the last 15 matchups between Golden State and Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-CHA (o/u at 228.5)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. HOU)
* Under the total was 15-2 (88.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MEM (o/u at 253.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, SACRAMENTO, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MEMPHIS, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHARLOTTE ML, MEMPHIS ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-MIA, ATL-MEM, SAC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): POR-PHI, SAC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, the majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MEM
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 42-26 SU and 42-23-3 ATS (64.6%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/3: UTAH vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9 vs. DET)
* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 27-37 SU and 23-40-1 ATS (36.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
3/3: Fade OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Houston
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. HOU)
* UNDER the total was 120-95-1 (55.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/3: Under the total in UTAH-DETROIT
3/3: Under the total in MIAMI-WASHINGTON
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-MIA (o/u at 218), DET-UTA (o/u at 233)
* Over the total is 40-24 (62.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/3: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-HOUSTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-OKC (o/u at 229.5)
* Under the total was 15-2 (88.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
3/3: Under the total in MEMPHIS-ATLANTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-MEM (o/u at 253.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 34-86 SU and 47-69-2 ATS since the ’22-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/3: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Golden State
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs. GSW)
* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 44-59 SU and 42-61 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
3/3: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Charlotte
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 at CHA)
* MIAMI is on a 10-8 SU but 7-11 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/3: Fade MIAMI vs. Washington
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8.5 vs. WSH)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs HOU)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 235-44 SU but just 129-144-6 ATS (47.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 102-83 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 199-165 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 262-201 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-CHA (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 236-130 SU but 166-192-8 ATS (46.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs HOU)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 72-55 SU and 66-59-2 ATS (52.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs. HOU)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 296-251 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-PHI (o/u at 229.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 275-292 SU and 252-307-8 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3 vs. POR)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams, coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer, have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 178-145 SU and 183-131-9 ATS (58.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+12.5 vs GSW)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 149-100 SU and 142-100-7 ATS (58.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-9 at UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +12.5 (+2.5)
2. ATLANTA +9 (+0.8)
3. PORTLAND +3 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -2 (+2.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.0)
3. DETROIT -9 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +12.5 (+5.3)
2. ATLANTA +9 (+2.1)
3. DALLAS +2 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MIAMI -8.5 (+1.0)
OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: POR-PHI OVER 229.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-3.4)
2. WSH-MIA UNDER 218.5 (-1.8)
3. DET-UTA UNDER 233 (-1.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +12.5 (+2.3)
2. PORTLAND +3 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -2 (+3.0)
2. DETROIT -9 (+1.4)
3. MIAMI -8.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-MIA OVER 218.5 (+1.0)
2. ATL-MEM OVER 253.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-CHA UNDER 228.5 (-3.6)
2. SAC-DAL UNDER 232 (-1.4)
3. DET-UTA UNDER 233 (-1.1)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) PORTLAND at (502) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the POR-PHI non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(503) GOLDEN STATE at (504) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 13-2 in the last 15 matchups between GSW and CHA
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(507) ATLANTA at (508) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the ATL-MEM series
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS
(511) SACRAMENTO at (512) DALLAS
* Under the total is 13-4 in the last 17 of the SAC-DAL series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(513) DETROIT at (514) UTAH
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games between DET and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
