The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Easter Weekend 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AI’s Takes of the Weekend

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 80-67-3 (54.4%). Here are today’s results:

 

-DENVER (-2.5 vs. LAC)
Playoff trend, scheduling situation, and Makinen bettors ratings projection favor DEN + two streak systems fade LAC

-ORL-BOS UNDER 205.5
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, and both Makinen ratings projections favor UNDER

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 128-130 SU but 134-109-5 ATS (55.1%), including 93-58-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+7 at NYK)

* In the last five playoff seasons played at home courts, first round Game Ones have gone Under the total at a 27-13 (65.6%) rate.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all eight games

* #2 seeds start fast – #2 seeded teams are on a run of 39-7 SU and 30-16 ATS (65.2%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 12 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-14 vs. ORL), HOUSTON (-1 vs. GSW)

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 62-85-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 28-42 ATS (40%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND), LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 at DEN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us. detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s and tomorrow’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and a ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, NEW YORK ML, LA LAKERS ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, BOSTON ML, CLEVELAND ML, HOUSTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-LAL, ORL-BOS, MIA-CLE, GSW-HOU

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range
•    Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 89-14 SU and 62-41 ATS (60.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs MEM), BOSTON (-14 vs ORL), CLEVELAND (-12 vs MIA)

•    First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 41-36 SU and 32-44-1 ATS (42.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-2.5 vs LAC), LA LAKERS (-4 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-1 vs GSW)

•    The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push– (57%). However, last year’s totals were split 21-21-1 in round one.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING UNDER in all eight games

•    With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 70-49-4 (58.8%). In all games with totals above 218, OVER the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-IND, LAC-DEN, DET-NYK, MEM-OKC
UNDER – MIN-LAL, ORL-BOS, MIA-CLE, GSW-HOU

First Round Trends by Game Number
•    Nearly three of every four home teams win opening game – Home teams have gone 63-25 SU and 48-40 ATS (54.5%) over the last 12 seasons. They were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in 2024!
System Matches: PLAY ALL EIGHT HOME TEAMS

•    Game 1 home favorites with lines of 5.5 points or less have improved a lot in recent years, going 20-9 SU and 17-12 ATS (58.6%) since 2015. They were once considered prime potential upset victims.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-2.5 vs LAC), LA LAKERS (-4 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-1 vs GSW)

•    In the last five playoff seasons played at home courts, Game Ones have gone Under the total at a 27-13 (65.6%) rate.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all eight games

Trends by Seed Number

•    #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 69-16 SU and 53-32 ATS (62.4%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-14 vs ORL)

•    #2 seeds start fast – #2 seeded teams are on a run of 39-7 SU and 30-16 ATS (65.2%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 12 years.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-14 vs. ORL), HOUSTON (-1 vs .GSW)

First Round Game Scoring Trends

•    Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 113-28 SU and 112-29 ATS (79.4%) run over the last six postseasons. These teams were 15-1 SU and ATS in 2024, with the only loss coming in a 121-118 decision in which both teams met the magic scoring mark.

•    In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 95-16 SU and 92-17-2 ATS (84.4%).

Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+DaysRest are 194-132 SU and 189-129 ATS (59.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 87-64 SU and 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 71-35 SU and 65-39-2 ATS (62.5%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
4/20: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Memphis
4/20: CLEVELAND vs. Miami
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs. MEM), CLEVELAND (-12 vs. MIA)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 49-29 SU and 44-31-3 ATS (58.7%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
4/20: DENVER vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 vs. LAC)

* Over the total was 121-83 (59.3%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.

* Over the total was 62-44 (58.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.

* Under the total is on a 83-36-1 (69.7%) in the last 120 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in1 0+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/20: MEMPHIS-OKLAHOMA CITY
4/20: MIAMI-CLEVELAND
Systems Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MEM-OKC (o/u at 226.5), MIA-CLE (o/u at 215)

* Under the total was 111-68 (62%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words, two pretty rested teams.

* Under the total was 70-48 (59.3%) since start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER in all games except MEM-OKC and MIA-CLE

* Under the total was 38-19 (66.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+D ays scenario.

* Under the total was 22-9 (71%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
4/21: UNDER the total in ORLANDO-BOSTON
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-BOS (o/u at 205.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 112-90 (55.4%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 224-175 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 285-222 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MEM-OKC (o/u at 226.5), ORL-BOS (o/u at 205.5), MIA-CLE (o/u at 215)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 128-130 SU but 134-109-5 ATS (55.1%), including 93-58-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+7 at NYK)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 150-55 SU and 121-82-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 205 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4 vs MIN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 294-311 SU and 270-327-8 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last four seasons
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 338-305 SU but 291-332-18 ATS (46.7%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND), DETROIT (+7 at NYK)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 168-182 SU and 158-182-10 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND), DETROIT (+7 at NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 128-23 SU but 65-83-3 ATS (43.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-12.5 vs MEM)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 259-307-4 ATS (45.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 31-136 SU and 71-90-6 ATS (44.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND), LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 at DEN)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 62-85-1 ATS (42.2%) in the next game, including 28-42 ATS (40%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 at IND), LA CLIPPERS (+2.5 at DEN)

This Weekend’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +14 (+2.6)
2. MIAMI +12 (+1.3)
3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+0.8)

This weekend’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW YORK -7 (+0.4)

This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +14 (+1.8)
2. MINNESOTA +4 (+1.5)
3. MILWAUKEE +6 (+0.7)

This weekend’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -1 (+3.5)
2. CLEVELAND -12 (+0.2)

This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-HOU OVER 212.5 (+1.4)
2. MIA-CLE OVER 215 (+0.6)
3. LAC-DEN OVER 223.5 (+0.2)

This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-BOS UNDER 205.5 (-4.1)
2. MIL-IND UNDER 225 (-2.3)
3. MIN-LAL UNDER 216 (-1.7)

This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI +12 (+3.3)
2. ORLANDO +14 (+3.0)
3. DETROIT +7 (+1.1)

This weekend’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -2.5 (+2.0)
2. INDIANA -6 (+1.0)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -12.5 (+0.9)

This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-OKC OVER 226.5 (+4.9)
2. GSW-HOU OVER 212.5 (+2.9)
3. MIA-CLE OVER 215 (+1.4)

This weekend’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-BOS UNDER 205.5 (-4.3)
2. MIL-IND UNDER 225 (-1.7)
3. DET-NYK UNDER 220 (-1.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Saturday, April 19, 2025

(501) DETROIT at (502) NEW YORK
* DETROIT is 5-1 ATS in the last six visits to NYK
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of DET-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(503) MILWAUKEE at (504) INDIANA
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of MIL-IND head-to-head divisional rivalry at Indiana
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) DENVER
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the LAC-DEN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

(507) MINNESOTA at (508) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the MIN-LAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS

Sunday, April 20, 2025

(509) MIAMI at (510) CLEVELAND
* MIAMI is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(511) ORLANDO at (512) BOSTON
* Home teams are 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven of the ORL-BOS head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(513) MEMPHIS at (514) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups with Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MEM-OKC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) GOLDEN STATE at (516) HOUSTON
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the GSW-HOU head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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