The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, April 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 70-59-2 (54.3%). Here are today’s results:

–  MIN-PHI OVER 225
Team strength system #5, both Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OVER

– MEMPHIS (-2 at DET)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, Makinen effective strength ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor MEM + scheduling situation fades DET

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Grizzlies are 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head games versus Pistons
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-2 at DET) 

* DALLAS is 14-7 SU and 16-5 ATS since the start of the last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at LAC) 

* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 291-304 SU and 267-320-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MEM-DET (o/u at 240)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MIL-MIA (o/u at 213.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 90-50 SU and 78-57-5 ATS (57.8%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 45-31 SU and 43-30-3 ATS (58.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 25-27 SU and 18-34 ATS skid in its last 52 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/5: LA CLIPPERS vs. Dallas
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs. DAL) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 35-43 SU but 45-32-3 ATS (58.4%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
* DALLAS is 14-7 SU and 16-5 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
4/5: DALLAS at LA Clippers
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at LAC) 

* Over the total was 102-90 (53.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
* Over the total was 48-37 (56.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
4/5: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-DALLAS
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-LAC (o/u at 221.5)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 35-41 SU and 30-44-2 ATS (40.5%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
4/5: FADE DETROIT vs. Memphis
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2 vs. MEM) 

* Over the total is 45-31 (59.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/5: Over the total in DETROIT-MEMPHIS
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-DET (o/u at 240) 

* MIAMI is on an 11-14 SU and ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
4/5: Fade MIAMI vs. Milwaukee
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1 vs. MIL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 55-51 SU and 44-59-3 ATS skid in the last 106 when playing on standard One Day Rest
4/5: Fade MILWAUKEE at Miami
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1 at MIA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 260-47 SU but just 144-157-6 ATS (47.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-16 at PHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-88 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-172 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 278-214 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-PHI (o/u at 225) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 276-144 SU but just 178-229-13 ATS (43.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-2 at DET) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 291-304 SU and 267-320-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1 at MIA) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-73 SU but 59-49 ATS (54.6%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY ATS): PHILADELPHIA (+16 vs. MIN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 74-18 SU and 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-16 at PHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 253-306-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-135 SU and 70-90-5 ATS (43.8%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+16 vs. MIN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +4 (+2.0)
2. MILWAUKEE +2 (+1.4)
3. PHILADELPHIA +16 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +8.5 (+5.1)
2. PHILADELPHIA +16 (+4.4)
3. ATLANTA +4 (+2.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEMPHIS -2 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-LAC OVER 221.5 (+2.7)
2. MIL-MIA OVER 213.5 (+1.4)
3. MIN-PHI OVER 225 (+0.9) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MEM-DET UNDER 240 (-1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE +2 (+2.6)
2. DETROIT +2 (+1.7)
3. ATLANTA +4 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-LAC OVER 221.5 (+3.0)
2(tie). MIN-PHI OVER 225 (+0.8)
MIL-MIA OVER 213.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-ATL UNDER 236.5 (-3.2)
2. MEM-DET UNDER 240 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) NEW YORK at (502) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the NYK-ATL head-to-head series at Atlanta
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(503) MINNESOTA at (504) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 11-2-1 in the last 14 head-to-head games when MIN visits PHI
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(505) MEMPHIS at (506) DETROIT
* MEMPHIS is 11-2 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head games versus DET
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS 

(509) DALLAS at (510) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the DAL-LAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the head-to-head series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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