The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team Undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results: 

– LAL-DEN Under 244
Scheduling situations favor Under and the series in Denver has trended Under recently 

– PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs. BKN)
A few scheduling situations and extreme stats system favors PHI

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 143-50 SU and 115-77-1 ATS (59.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAL)

* Under the total was 21-7 (75%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): LAL-DEN (o/u at 244), HOU-UTA (o/u at 227)

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 36-12 SU and 33-13-2 ATS (71.7%) in their last 48 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 at CHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, LA LAKERS, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in am NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): PHX-CHI, HOU-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-UTA
Under – LAL-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch Under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-PHI

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 81-59 SU and 74-63-3 ATS (54%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
2/22: PORTLAND vs. Charlotte
2/22: DENVER vs. LA Lakers
2/22: PHILADELPHIA vs. Brooklyn
2/22: CHICAGO vs. Phoenix
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (-4.5 vs. CHA), DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAL), PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs. BKN), CHICAGO (+5.5 vs. PHX) 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 55-47 SU and 54-45-3 ATS (54.5%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
2/22: PORTLAND vs. Charlotte
2/22: DENVER vs. LA Lakers
2/22: PHILADELPHIA vs. Brooklyn
2/22: CHICAGO vs. Phoenix
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (-4.5 vs. CHA), DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAL), PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs. BKN), CHICAGO (+5.5 v.s PHX) 

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 15-10 SU and ATS (60%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
2/22: PORTLAND vs. Charlotte
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-4.5 vs. CHA)

* Under the total was 53-21 (71.6%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
2/22: Under the total in DENVER-LA LAKERS
2/22: Under the total in PORTLAND-CHARLOTTE
2/22: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-BROOKLYN
2/22: Under the total in CHICAGO-PHOENIX
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): CHA-POR (o/u at 224), LAL-DEN (o/u at 244), PHX-CHI (o/u at 238), BKN-PHI (o/u at 212) 

* Under the total was 12-1 (92.3%) last season when the home team was playing its 4th Home in 10+ Days and the road team was playing on OneDayRest.
2/22: Under the total in DENVER-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY Under): LAL-DEN (o/u at 244) 

* Under the total was 103-61 (62.8%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game. In other words, two pretty rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY Under in all five games today 

* Under the total is on a 65-27-1 (70.7%) in the last 93 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/22: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-PORTLAND
2/22: Under the total in LA LAKERS-DENVER
2/22: Under the total in PHOENIX-CHICAGO
2/22: Under the total in BROOKLYN-PHILADELPHIA
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): CHA-POR (o/u at 224), LAL-DEN (o/u at 244), PHX-CHI (o/u at 238), BKN-PHI (o/u at 212)

* Under the total was 66-43 (60.6%) since start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
System Matches: PLAY Under in all five games 

* Under the total was 32-15 (68.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/22: Under the total in DENVER-LA LAKERS
2/22: Under the total in UTAH-HOUSTON
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): LAL-DEN (o/u at 244), HOU-UTA (o/u at 227) 

* Under the total was 21-7 (75%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/22: Under the total in DENVER-LA LAKERS
2/22: Under the total in UTAH-HOUSTON
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): LAL-DEN (o/u at 244), HOU-UTA (o/u at 227) 

* Under the total was 16-2 (88.9%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 4th Home in 10+ Days game versus a road team on 3rd in 8+ Days scenario.
2/22: Under the total in DENVER-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY Under): LAL-DEN (o/u at 244) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 17-31 SU and 17-30-1 ATS skid in the last 48 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
2/22: FADE LA LAKERS vs. Denver
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+6.5 at DEN) 

* PORTLAND is 32-67 SU and 39-60 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
2/22: FADE PORTLAND vs. Charlotte
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-4.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 143-50 SU and 115-77-1 ATS (59.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 vs LAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 98-82 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 195-163 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY Under): BKN-PHI (o/u at 212) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-284 SU and 245-301-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 at UTA)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 181-69 SU and 133-114-3 ATS (53.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-11 vs. BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 36-12 SU and 33-13-2 ATS (71.7%) in their last 48 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 at CHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 72-84 SU but 87-67-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+5.5 vs PHX)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 230-280-3 ATS (45.1%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-130 SU and 69-86-5 ATS (44.5%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-72-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-6.5 vs. LAL) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page Under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UnderPRICED UnderDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +5 (+3.9)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+3.8)
3. LA LAKERS +7 (+2.1) 

Today’s UnderPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHOENIX -5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UnderPRICED UnderDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +5 (+5.7)
2. CHICAGO +5 (+3.1)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+3.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHX-CHI OVER 238.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING Under according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-POR Under 225 (-1.6)
2. HOU-UTA Under 228 (-0.8)
3. BKN-PHI Under 212 (-0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UnderPRICED UnderDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +7 (+3.8)
2. CHARLOTTE +5 (+3.5)
3. UTAH +8.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UnderPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -11.5 (+2.0)
2. PHOENIX -5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-CHI OVER 238.5 (+3.1)
2. HOU-UTA OVER 228 (+1.6)
3. BKN-PHI OVER 212 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING Under according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-POR Under 225 (-3.5)
2. LAL-DEN Under 244 (-1.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(519) PHOENIX at (520) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the PHX-CHI series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(521) BROOKLYN at (522) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the BKN-PHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(523) LA LAKERS at (524) DENVER
* Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the LAL-DEN series
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the LAL-DEN series at Denver
Trend Match: PLAY Under the total 

(527) CHARLOTTE at (528) PORTLAND
* Under the total has converted in five straight games between CHA and POR
Trend Match: PLAY Under the total

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR