The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* FAVORITES are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the MIA-POR non-Conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 at POR) 

* NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 172-142 SU and 176-129-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5 at DET) 

* UTAH is on a 43-22 OVER the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 228)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs MEM) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MINNESOTA 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – PHOENIX ML, DETROIT ML, MINNESOTA ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-DET

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-MIN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-POR 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* MIAMI is on an 18-11 SU and 20-8-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
1/11: MIAMI at Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 at POR) 

* PORTLAND is 27-63 SU and 33-57 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/11: FADE PORTLAND vs. Miami
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+3.5 vs MIA)

* TORONTO is 21-11 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
1/11: Over the total in TORONTO-DETROIT
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-DET (o/u at 228)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 173-149 (53.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 244-190 (56.2%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-PHX (o/u at 228) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 172-142 SU and 176-129-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +5 (+2.0)
2. UTAH +11 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.7)
MIAMI -3.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+3.5)
2. TORONTO +5 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -3.5 (+1.9)
2. PHOENIX -11 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-DET OVER 227 (+2.2)
2. UTA-PHX OVER 228.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-POR UNDER 219 (-3.1)
2. MEM-MIN UNDER 232 (-0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +5 (+2.4)
2. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+0.5)
3. PORTLAND +3.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: PHOENIX -11 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-DET OVER 227 (+2.8)
2. MEM-MIN OVER 232 (+0.2)
3. UTA-PHX OVER 228.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: MIA-POR UNDER 219 (-2.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(517) UTAH at (518) PHOENIX
* Over the total has converted in six straight meetings between Utah and Phoenix
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(519) TORONTO at (520) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games hosting Toronto, but did lose ATS last time
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(523) MIAMI at (524) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the MIA-POR non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR