The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the Philadelphia-Indiana series (including eight straight Overs)
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHI-IND (o/u at 225) 

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 268-214 SU but 208-261-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+7 vs. CLE)

* PORTLAND is 27-65 SU and 33-59 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+11.5 vs. HOU) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, INDIANA ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU, but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON ML 

This last system involves totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-GSW

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 22-34 SU and 20-35-1 ATS (36.4%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
1/18: Fade MINNESOTA vs. Cleveland
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+7 vs CLE)

* Over the total is 35-21 (62.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
1/18: Over the total in MINNESOTA-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIN (o/u at 227) 

* HOUSTON is 11-30 SU and 14-27 ATS in its last 41 3rd Straight Road games
1/18: Fade HOUSTON at Portland
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-11.5 at POR)

* PORTLAND is 27-65 SU and 33-59 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
1/18: Fade PORTLAND vs. Houston
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+11.5 vs HOU) 

* HOUSTON is on a 35-15 Over the total surge when playing on the road in a 3rd in 4 Days scheduling scenario
1/18: Over the total in HOUSTON-PORTLAND
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-POR (o/u at 223)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 205-38 SU
but just 113-125-5 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs. WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 178-150 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 247-191 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-BOS (o/u at 235.5), WSH-GSW (o/u at 229), HOU-POR (o/u at 223)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 268-214 SU but 208-261-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+7 vs. CLE) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 261-274 SU and 238-290-7 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+7 vs. CLE), GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs. WSH)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 288-261 SU and 248-286-13 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+7 vs. CLE)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 219-269-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU and 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at GSW) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +1.5 (+3.2)
2. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+1.3)
3. PORTLAND +11.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10 (+2.4)
2. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+3.9)
2. DETROIT +1.5 (+3.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+3.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+1.5)
3. BOSTON -10 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-POR OVER 223 (+0.2)
2. WSH-GSW OVER 229 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIN UNDER 227 (-1.3)
2. PHI-IND UNDER 225 (-0.3)
3. ATL-BOS UNDER 235.5 (-0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +1.5 (+2.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+2.3)
3. PORTLAND +11.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10 (+3.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). PHI-IND OVER 225 (+0.6)
WSH-GSW OVER 229 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIN UNDER 227 (-3.1)
2. PHX-DET UNDER 226.5 (-1.1)
3. HOU-POR UNDER 223 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) PHOENIX at (552) DETROIT
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the PHX-DET series at Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(555) PHILADELPHIA at (556) INDIANA
* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the PHI-IND series (including eight straight Overs)
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(557) WASHINGTON at (558) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games versus Washington
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(559) CLEVELAND at (560) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus Cleveland
Trend Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS 

(561) HOUSTON at (562) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the HOU-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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