The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Underdogs are on an extended 16-4-1 ATS run in the Utah-Miami matchups
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH (+8.5 at MIA) 

* Under the total was 52-21 (71.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-IND (o/u at 234.5) 

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-208 SU but 204-255-12 ATS (44.4%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. MEM) 

* DETROIT is on a 15-3 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 218.5)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, NEW YORK, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-MIA, DEN-SAS, POR-MIL, MEM-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-CHI, POR-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-BKN, MIN-DET 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-MIL 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 187-127 SU and 183-123 ATS (59.8%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
1/4: PHOENIX at Indiana
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+2 at IND) 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 72-38 SU and 64-42-4 ATS (60.4%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/4: GOLDEN STATE vs. Memphis
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. MEM) 

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 54-47 SU and 53-45-3 ATS (54.1%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
1/4: INDIANA vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2 vs. PHX) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 33-18 SU and 33-17-1 ATS (66%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/4: GOLDEN STATE vs. Memphis
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. MEM)

* Over the total was 113-79 (59.2%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
1/4: Over the total in INDIANA-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-IND (o/u at 234.5)

* Umder the total was 109-80-1 (57.7%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/4: Under the total in DETROIT-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 218.5)

* Over the total was 87-71 (55.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/4: Over the total in ATLANTA-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-LAC (o/u at 228) 

* Under the total was 52-21 (71.2%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
1/4: Under the total in INDIANA-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-IND (o/u at 234.5)

* Under the total was 14-1 (93.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing its 3rd Home in 4 Days and the road team was playing a 2 Days Rest game.
1/4: Under the total in MIAMI-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-MIA (o/u at 223) 

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is on 9-32 SU and 9-31-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rdGamein4Days
1/4: Fade ATLANTA at La Clippers
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+7.5 at LAC) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 36-39 SU and 25-49-1 ATS skid in the last 75 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/4: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Portland
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs POR) 

* NEW YORK is on 26-20 SU and 30-16 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/4: NEW YORK at Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5.5 at CHI) 

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 39-28 SU and 43-23-1 ATS in its last 67 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/4: PHILADELPHIA at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 at BKN) 

* DETROIT is on a 15-3 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
1/4: Under the total in DETROIT-MINNESOTA
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DET (o/u at 218.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on some team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-Conference games have gone 195-36 SU but just 107-120-4 ATS (47.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs. POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-145 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 242-186 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MIL (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 215-125 SU but 153-181-6 ATS (45.8%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. MEM)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 138-83 SU but 98-119-4 ATS (45.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 83-106 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 at BKN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 263-208 SU but 204-255-12 ATS (44.4%) over the last 6 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs. MEM)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-237 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-GSW (o/u at 233.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 255-271 SU and 232-287-7 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DET)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 285-258 SU and 245-284-12 ATS (46.3%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DET)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 146-163 SU and 141-160-8 ATS (46.8%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DET) 

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 174-63 SU and 128-106-3 ATS (54.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DET)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +7.5 (+3.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+1.8)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -5.5 (+1.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +7.5 (+3.4)
2. UTAH +8.5 (+2.6)
3. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -12.5 (+1.5)
2(tie). LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+1.3)
NEW YORK -5.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-MIA OVER 223 (+1.3)
2. NYK-CHI OVER 236 (+0.7)
3. ATL-LAC OVER 228 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-IND UNDER 234.5 (-3.1)
2. MIN-DET UNDER 218.5 (-2.1)
3. DEN-SAS UNDER 236.5 (-1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT +7.5 (+2.2)
2. PHOENIX +2 (+1.4)
3. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -5.5 (+0.5)
2. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.4)
3. LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-LAC OVER 228 (+4.1)
2. MEM-GSW OVER 233.5 (+2.7)
3. NYK-CHI OVER 236 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-MIL UNDER 228.5 (-4.3)
2. DEN-SAS UNDER 236.5 (-4.2)
3. PHX-IND UNDER 234.5 (-3.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(559) PHILADELPHIA at (560) BROOKLYN
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the rivalry with BKN
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(561) MINNESOTA at (562) DETROIT
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the MIN-DET series at Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(563) PHOENIX at (564) INDIANA
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven games between PHX and IND
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(565) NEW YORK at (566) CHICAGO
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the NYK-CHI series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS 

(567) UTAH at (568) MIAMI
* Underdogs are on an extended 16-4-1 ATS run in the UTA-MIA matchups
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS 

(571) PORTLAND at (572) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the POR-MIL non-Conference series but did lose last time
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between POR and MIL
Trend Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(575) ATLANTA at (576) LA CLIPPERS
* Road teams have covered five straight ATS in the ATL-LAC meetings
Trend Match: PLAY ATLANTA ATS

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