The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting 1/30: 31-26. Here are today’s results: 

– WASHINGTON (+4 at CHA)
Scheduling situation fades CHA, recent head-to-head trend + team strength system #2 favors WSH 

– BKN-DET OVER 216.5
Recent head-to-head trend favors Over and Makinen ratings projections favor Over

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 48-45 SU and 35-56-2 ATS skid in the last 93 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at DAL)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 41-25 SU and 41-22-3 ATS (65.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-11 vs. BKN) 

* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of Sacramento-Houston head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in SAC-HOU (o/u at 231)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHARLOTTE ML, DETROIT ML, HOUSTON ML, MEMPHIS ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-HOU, SAS-MEM, MIL-DAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-CHA, BKN-DET 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAC-HOU, SAS-MEM

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a head-to-head b2b game were 47-47 SU and 53-39-2 ATS (57.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
3/1: MEMPHIS vs. San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-9.5 vs SAS)

* Hosts playing in a head-to-head b2b game scenario were 25-24 SU and 29-20 ATS (59.2%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/1: MEMPHIS vs. San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-9.5 vs. SAS) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 41-25 SU and 41-22-3 ATS (65.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/1: DETROIT vs. Brooklyn
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-11 vs. BKN) 

* Over the total was 94-70 (57.3%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/1: Over the total in MEMPHIS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MEM (o/u at 244.5) 

* Over the total was 19-12 (61.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/1: Over the total in MEMPHIS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MEM (o/u at 244.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 34-85 SU and 47-68-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/1: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Washington
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-4 vs. WSH) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 44-58 SU and 42-60 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
3/1: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 at PHI) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 48-45 SU and 35-56-2 ATS skid in the last 93 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/1: Fade MILWAUKEE at Dallas
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at DAL)

* DETROIT is on a 17-8 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
3/1: Under the total in DETROIT-BROOKLYN
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-DET (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 105-73 SU and 106-69-3 ATS (60.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+4 at CHA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 101-83 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 198-165 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 261-200 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-DET (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 32-69 SU but 54-47 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs. GSW) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 68-18 SU and 48-35-3 ATS (57.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-8.5 at PHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 234-283-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 vs. GSW)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +11 (+0.9)
2. WASHINGTON +4 (+0.7)
3. DALLAS +3.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: HOUSTON -5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +3.5 (+2.8)
2. BROOKLYN +11 (+2.3)
3. SAN ANTONIO +9.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.8)
2. HOUSTON -5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-DET OVER 216.5 (+0.8)
2. SAC-HOU OVER 231 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-PHI UNDER 228 (-2.1)
2. SAS-MEM UNDER 244.5 (-1.4)
3. WSH-CHA UNDER 219 (-0.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +3.5 (+0.6)
2. SACRAMENTO +5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE -4 (+0.6)
2. MEMPHIS -9.5 (+0.5)
3. DETROIT -11 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-CHA OVER 219 (+3.7)
2. BKN-DET OVER 216.5 (+1.1)
3. MIL-DAL OVER 228 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-PHI UNDER 228 (-3.3)
2(tie). SAC-HOU UNDER 231 (-1.0)
SAS-MEM UNDER 244.5 (-1.0)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(549) WASHINGTON at (550) CHARLOTTE
* WASHINGTON is 7-1 ATS in the last eight versus CHA
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(551) BROOKLYN at (552) DETROIT
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the BKN-DET head-to-head series at Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
* DETROIT has covered five straight ATS versus BKN
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(553) SACRAMENTO at (554) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the SAC-HOU head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(557) MILWAUKEE at (558) DALLAS
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight games when MIL visits Dallas
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(559) GOLDEN STATE at (560) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the GSW-PHI head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

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