The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 47-37-1 (56%). Here are today’s results: 

– NEW ORLEANS (-5 at SAS)
Two DK Betting Splits Systems, one scheduling situation, team strength system #3 and recent head-to-head trend all favor NOP

– OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at DET)
Scheduling situation and Makinen Bettors Ratings projection both favor OKC

– WSH-DEN UNDER 239
Two DK Betting Splits systems, scheduling situation, extreme stat system #11, and both Makinen ratings projections all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* BOSTON has dominated head-to-head divisional series with BKN lately –
16-1 SU and 12-3-2 ATS in L17 overall and 9-0 SU/ATS in L9 visits to Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-10 at BKN)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 289-226 SU but 228-272-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-8 vs. CHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–   Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–   Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–   Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–   Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, HOUSTON, MIAMI, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, NEW ORLEANS 

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – HOUSTON ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MEMPHIS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-MIL, WSH-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – NOP-SAS, WSH-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-BKN 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 64-42 SU and 68-37-1 ATS (64.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
3/15: NEW ORLEANS at San Antonio
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5 vs. SAS) 

* Home teams playing a head-to-head b2b game were 47-48 SU and 53-40-2 ATS (57%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
3/15: DENVER vs. Washington
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12 vs. WSH) 

* Home teams playing in a 4th in 6 Days game scenario were 24-11 SU and 22-13 ATS (62.9%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/15: SAN ANTONIO vs. New Orleans
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+5 vs. NOP) 

* Hosts playing in a head-to-head b2b game scenario were 25-25 SU and 29-21 ATS (58%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/15: DENVER vs. Washington
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-12 vs. WSH) 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 42-29 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/15: MEMPHIS vs. Miami
3/15: HOUSTON vs. Chicago
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (-8 vs. MIA), HOUSTON (-8 vs. CHI)

* Under the total was 125-96-1 (56.6%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/15: Under the total in DENVER-WASHINGTON
3/15: Under the total in HOUSTON-CHICAGO
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-DEN (o/u at 239), CHI-HOU (o/u at 229.5) 

* Over the total was 100-84 (54.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
3/15: Over the total in BOSTON-BROOKLYN
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-BKN (o/u at 215.5) 

* Over the total was 95-70 (57.6%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/15: Over the total in DENVER-WASHINGTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 239) 

* Over the total was 20-12 (62.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/15: Over the total in DENVER-WASHINGTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 239) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 50-46 SU and 37-56-3 ATS skid in the last 96 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/15: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Indiana
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs. IND) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-19 SU and 31-18-2 ATS in its last 51 games playing on 2 Days Rest
3/15: OKLAHOMA CITY at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5 at DET) 

* DETROIT is on an 18-8 Under the total run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
3/15: Under the total in DETROIT-OKLAHOMA CITY
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 75-29 SU and 64-39-1 ATS (62.1%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5 at SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 242-44 SU but just 133-147-6 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+12 at DEN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 104-87 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 205-166 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 266-207 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-DEN (o/u at 239)
UNDER – BOS-BKN (o/u at 215.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 75-55 SU and 68-60-2 ATS (53.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs. NYK) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 289-226 SU but 228-272-15 ATS (45.6%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-8 vs. CHI) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 302-256 (54.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-DET (o/u at 235.5), WSH-DEN (o/u at 239)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 279-297 SU and 255-313-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs. NYK)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 315-290 SU but 272-314-17 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-7 vs. NYK), WASHINGTON (+12 at DEN), SAN ANTONIO (+5 vs. NOP)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 158-172 SU and 149-172-9 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+12 at DEN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +5 (+2.6)
2. INDIANA +5.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10 (+2.6)
2. DENVER -12 (+1.8)
3. HOUSTON -8 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +5 (+3.0)
2. DETROIT +5 (+2.5)
3. CHICAGO +8 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DENVER -12 (+2.6)
2. BOSTON -10 (+0.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE +7 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-SAS OVER 238.5 (+1.5)
2. IND-MIL OVER 234.5 (+1.4)
3. CHI-HOU OVER 229.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DEN UNDER 239 (-1.9)
2. MIA-MEM UNDER 228 (-1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +5 (+3.0)
2. INDIANA +5.5 (+2.6)
3. MIAMI +8 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10 (+4.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5 (+3.5)
3. DENVER -12 (+3.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-MIL OVER 234.5 (+1.7)
2. NYK-GSW OVER 228.5 (+1.4)
3. NOP-SAS OVER 238.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-DEN UNDER 239 (-1.8)
2. MIA-MEM UNDER 228 (-1.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) BOSTON at (532) BROOKLYN
* BOSTON has dominated head-to-head divisional series with BKN lately –
16-1 SU and 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 overall and 9-0 SU/ATS in the last nine visits to Brooklyn
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(533) OKLAHOMA CITY at (534) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 versus Oklahoma City
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(535) CHICAGO at (536) HOUSTON
* Over the total has converted in seven straight head-to-head matchups between CHI and HOU
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(539) MIAMI at (540) MEMPHIS
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the MIA-MEM head-to-head series at Memphis
Trend Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS 

(541) NEW YORK at (542) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the NYK-GSW head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(543) NEW ORLEANS at (544) SAN ANTONIO
* NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games versus San Antonio
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

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