The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Take of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 56-45-1 (55.4%). Here are today’s results:

– MIL-SAC OVER 223
Both Makinen ratings projections and massive head-to-head trend favors Over

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is 23-1 in the last 24 of Bucks-Kings head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-SAC (o/u at 223) 

* NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 146-54 SU and 118-80-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 200 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs. CHI)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 37-18 SU and 35-18-2 ATS (66%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs. GSW)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, WASHINGTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, SACRAMENTO, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or raod team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-IND 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 37-18 SU and 35-18-2 ATS (66%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
3/22: ATLANTA vs. Golden State
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs. GSW)

* Over the total was 59-43 (57.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+DaysRest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/22: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-ATLANTA
Systems Match (PLAY OVER ALL): GSW-ATL (o/u at 233.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 46-59 SU and 43-62 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
3/22: Fade GOLDEN STATE at Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 at ATL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 52-47 SU and 39-57-3 ATS skid in last 99 when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/22: Fade MILWAUKEE at Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+2 at SAC) 

* Under the total was 126-102-1 (55.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/22: Under the total in SACRAMENTO-MILWAUKEE
3/22: Under the total in INDIANA-BROOKLYN
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-SAC (o/u at 223), BKN-IND (o/u at 219)

* Over the total was 61-53 (53.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/22: Over the total in NEW YORK-WASHINGTON
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-NYK (o/u at 223) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 212-168 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 268-209 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-NYK (o/u at 223), BKN-IND (o/u at 219)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 146-54 SU and 118-80-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 200 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs. CHI) 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 274-143 SU but just 177-227-13 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 at ATL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 295-226 SU but 233-273-15 ATS (46%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 41-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs. GSW)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 323-293 SU but 278-319-17 ATS (46.6%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 vs. GSW) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 155-100 SU and 147-101-7 ATS (59.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-10 vs. BKN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +9.5 (+1.4)
2. BROOKLYN +10 (+1.2)
3. MILWAUKEE +2 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+1.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +10 (+5.3)
2. CHICAGO +9.5 (+4.2)
3. ATLANTA +2.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NEW YORK -15.5 (+3.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-LAL OVER 233 (+2.7)
2. BKN-IND OVER 219 (+1.3)
3. MIL-SAC OVER 223 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-ATL UNDER 233.5 (-1.4)
2. WSH-NYK UNDER 223 (-0.6) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO +9.5 (+1.1)
2. MILWAUKEE +2 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -15.5 (+1.9)
2. INDIANA -10 (+0.9)
3. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-LAL OVER 233 (+4.3)
2. MIL-SAC OVER 223 (+3.6)
3. GSW-ATL OVER 233.5 (+2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(521) BROOKLYN at (522) INDIANA
* Underdogs are 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 of BKN-IND head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(523) GOLDEN STATE at (524) ATLANTA
* Favorites have won 19 straight games in the GSW-ATL head-to-head non-conference series (going 15-4 ATS)
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE 

(525) WASHINGTON at (526) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the WSH-NYK head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS 

(527) MILWAUKEE at (528) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 23-1 in the last 24 of the MIL-SAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(529) CHICAGO at (530) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the CHI-LAL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR