Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* UNDER the total is 9-1 in L10 h2h meetings between MIL and CHA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in MIL-CHA (o/u at 216.5)
-Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 64-75 SU & 76-61-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-10.5 vs SAS)
* LA LAKERS are on a 14-2 OVER the total run when playing on the back end of a A2A b2b scheduling scenario
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
-Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-85 SU & 55-76-5 ATS (42%) slide, including 26-45-3 ATS in the L74 games and 17-32 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-10.5 vs UTA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, SACRAMENTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and a ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and a ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE): HOME TEAMS MAJORITY – SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority MONEY LINE HANDLE was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on HANDLE for +30 units, a R.O.I. of 11.5%. This R.O.I. is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO ML, SAN ANTONIO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and a R.O.I. of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO ML, SAN ANTONIO ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAL-NOP
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority HANDLE bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority NUMBER of BETS groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-CHA
UNDER – LAL-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 31-10 SU & 24-16-1 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the L3 seasons.
11/16: BOSTON vs. Toronto
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-16.5 vs TOR)
* UNDER the total was 104-72-1 (59.1%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rdHomein4Days game.
11/16: UNDER the total in SACRAMENTO-UTAH
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-SAC (o/u at 229)
* OVER the total was 81-67 (54.7%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
11/16: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
* OVER the total was 36-26 (58.1%) over the L3 seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
11/16: OVER the total in NEW ORLEANS-LA LAKERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
* OVER the total was 44-36 (55%) over L2 seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/16: OVER the total in DALLAS-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-DAL (o/u at 229.5)
* LA LAKERS are on a 14-26 SU & 14-25-1 ATS skid entering the ’24-25 season playing a 3rdin4days game
11/16: FADE LA LAKERS at New Orleans
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-6.5 at NOP)
* LA LAKERS are on a 14-2 OVER the total run when playing on the back end of a A2A b2b scheduling scenario
11/16: OVER the total in LA LAKERS-NEW ORLEANS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-NOP (o/u at 219.5)
* UTAH is on a 37-20 OVER the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
11/16: OVER the total in UTAH-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAC (o/u at 229)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-61 SU & 93-61-3 ATS (60.4%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 69-23 SU & 60-31-1 ATS (65.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at CHA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 87-75 (53.7%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 161-140 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 228-163 (58.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-SAC (o/u at 229)
UNDER – TOR-BOS (o/u at 229.5), SAS-DAL (o/u at 229.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of OVERTIME games
1) Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 51-85 SU & 55-76-5 ATS (42%) slide, including 26-45-3 ATS in the L74 games and 17-32 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-10.5 vs UTA)
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
2) Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 202-118 SU but 143-171-6 ATS (45.5%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-16.5 vs TOR)
Unusual shooting performance systems
13) Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 251-241 SU & 221-258-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the L4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-16.5 vs TOR)
Unusual defensive performances
17) Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 155-57 SU & 118-91-3 ATS (56.5%) over the last 4 seasons.System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-10.5 vs UTA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 56-15 SU & 42-27-2 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA LAKERS (*if they become 7.5-point favorites or more, -6.5 currently*)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their L4 games or more have taken on LOSING TEAMS (166-187 ATS, 47%) versus when they’ve faced WINNING TEAMS (224-217 ATS, 50.8%) over the L4 seasons.
System Matches: FADE – DALLAS (-10.5 vs SAS)
SLIGHT PLAY – TORONTO (+16.5 at BOS)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 64-75 SU & 76-61-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): DALLAS (-10.5 vs SAS)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.5)
2. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+1.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -17 (+2.5)
2. SACRAMENTO -10.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+6.1)
2. TORONTO +17 (+4.7)
3. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -7 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-NOP OVER 219 (+5.3)
2. MIL-CHA OVER 216.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-4.7)
2. TOR-BOS UNDER 229.5 (-1.3)
3. UTA-SAC UNDER 229.5 (-0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO +10.5 (+2.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +7 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -17 (+4.1)
2. SACRAMENTO -10.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-NOP OVER 219 (+4.4)
2. MIL-CHA OVER 216.5 (+2.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-DAL UNDER 229.5 (-6.7)
2. UTA-SAC UNDER 229.5 (-2.8)
3. TOR-BOS UNDER 229.5 (-0.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) MILWAUKEE at (526) CHARLOTTE
* UNDER the total is 9-1 in L10 h2h meetings between MIL and CHA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(527) TORONTO at (528) BOSTON
* UNDER the total is 9-2-1 in L12 of TOR-BOS rivalry
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(529) LA LAKERS at (530) NEW ORLEANS
* LA LAKERS are 6-1 ATS in L7 of h2h series with NOP
System Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
(531) SAN ANTONIO at (532) DALLAS
* OVER the total is 5-1 in SAS-DAL divisional series at Dallas since 2022
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
