Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams playing a 3rdin8+Days game are 29-10 SU and 28-9-2 ATS (75.7%) hosting teams playing a 2DaysRest game over the L4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-15 vs WSH)
* OVER the total was 26-18 (59.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2DaysRest.
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DET (o/u at 215)
-NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 258-203 SU but 199-250-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last 6 seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2 vs PHI)
* UNDER the total is on a 7-1 run in the last eight of the ATL-CHA rivalry in Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-CHA (o/u at 225.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning NUMBER of BETS. When 70% or more of the NUMBER of BETS has been on a HOME side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and a ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and a ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS –MILWAUKEE ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-MIL, DAL-UTA
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 64-40 SU and 64-38-2 ATS (62.7%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
11/30: MILWAUKEE vs. Washington
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-15 vs WSH)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 29-10 SU and 28-9-2 ATS (75.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
11/30: MILWAUKEE vs. Washington
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-15 vs WSH)
* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 28-19 SU and 28-17-2 ATS (62.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/30: CHARLOTTE vs. Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs ATL)
* UNDER the total was 72-43 (62.6%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rdin8+Days game.
11/30: UNDER the total in WASHINGTON-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-MIL (o/u at 229.5)
* OVER the total was 26-18 (59.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on an A2H b2b and the road team was playing on 2DaysRest.
11/30: OVER the total in DETROIT-PHILADELPHIA
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-DET (o/u at 215)
* ATLANTA is on 7-32 SU and 8-30-1 ATS skid when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
11/30: FADE ATLANTA at Charlotte
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 at CHA)
* PHOENIX is 19-15 SU but 11-22-1 ATS in its last 34 3rd Straight Home games
11/30: FADE PHOENIX vs. Golden State
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-2.5 vs GSW)
* ATLANTA is 44-21 OVER the total since ’22 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
11/30: OVER the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-CHA (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-77 (54.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 164-141 (53.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 232-172 (57.4%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 229.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 258-203 SU but 199-250-12 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-2 vs PHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 242-257 SU and 221-272-6 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-6.5 at UTA)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 262-247 SU and 229-267-11 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-15 vs WSH)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-60 SU but 49-41 ATS (54.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 98-17 SU but 51-62-3 ATS (45.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-15 vs WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on LOSING TEAMS (171-190 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced WINNING TEAMS (229-222 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 202-249-2 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-111 SU and 58-75-4 ATS (43.6%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15 at MIL)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
UTAH +6.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA -4.5 (+1.7)
2. DETROIT -2 (+1.6)
3. PHOENIX -2.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -2 (+2.3)
2. PHOENIX -2.5 (+1.3)
3. ATLANTA -4.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-MIL OVER 229.5 (+2.9)
2. ATL-CHA OVER 225.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-PHX UNDER 232.5 (-3.1)
2. DAL-UTA UNDER 231.5 (-0.5)
3. PHI-DET UNDER 215 (-0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
UTAH +6.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX -2.5 (+2.2)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+1.1)
3. DETROIT -2 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-MIL OVER 229.5 (+2.5)
2. PHI-DET OVER 215 (+1.7)
3. DAL-UTA OVER 231.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
GSW-PHX UNDER 232.5 (-3.8)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(521) ATLANTA at (522) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is on a 7-1 run in the last eight of the ATL-CHA rivalry in Charlotte
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) DETROIT
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus Detroit, but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(527) GOLDEN STATE at (528) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is on a 7-1 ATS run in the last eight of the rivalry with Golden State at HOME
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
* Overthe total has converted in the last five matchups in Phoenix
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(529) DALLAS at (530) UTAH
* Under the total has converted in all five matchups between DAL and UTA in 2024
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total
