The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 71-60-2 (54.2%). Here are today’s results:

– CHICAGO (-9 at CHA)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, three Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend all favor CHI + scheduling trend fades CHA

– MIL-NOP OVER 221.5
Makinen bettors ratings projection and recent head-to-head trend favor OVER

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* GOLDEN STATE is on runs of 16-1 SU in the last 17 and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games versus HOU
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs. HOU)

* UTAH is 14-26 SU but 29-11 ATS in its last 40 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 at ATL)

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 75-30 SU and 64-40-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3 at BKN)

* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-93 SU and 61-85-5 ATS (41.8%) slide, including 32-54-3 ATS in the last 89 games and 20-36 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-8.5 at NOP)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–   Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, TORONTO, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, DENVER, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-ATL, MIL-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAS-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-ATL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams playing a head-to-head b2b game were 48-55 SU but 54-47-2 ATS (53.5%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
* Hosts playing in a head-to-head b2b game scenario were 26-29 SU but 30-25 ATS (54.5%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
4/6: ATLANTA vs. Utah
Trends Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-12.5 vs. UTA)

* UTAH is 14-26 SU but 29-11 ATS in its last 40 3rd Straight Road games
4/6: UTAH at Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 at ATL)

* Over the total was 25-12 (67.6%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
* Over the total was 101-72 (58.4%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
* UTAH is on a 50-27 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
* ATLANTA is 50-29 Over the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
4/6: Over the total in ATLANTA-UTAH
Systems/Trends Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-ATL (o/u at 245.5)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 35-42 SU and 30-45-2 ATS (40%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
4/6: Fade NEW YORK vs. Phoenix
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-9 vs PHX)

* Over the total is 45-32 (58.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game
4/6: OVER the total in NEW YORK-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-NYK (o/u at 225.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 35-91 SU and 49-73-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/6: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+9 vs CHI)

* LA LAKERS are on a 23-32 SU and 23-31-1 ATS skid in the last 55 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
4/6: FADE LA LAKERS at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+9.5 at OKC)

* PORTLAND is 34-71 SU and 42-63 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/6: FADE PORTLAND vs. San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-4.5 vs. SAS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based up various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-53 SU and 120-80-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 vs LAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 113-78 SU and 115-73-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 75-30 SU and 64-40-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 261-47 SU but just 144-158-6 ATS (47.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL ATS): CLEVELAND (-10 vs SAC), ATLANTA (-12.5 vs UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-88 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-173 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 278-214 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAC-CLE (o/u at 236), WSH-BOS (o/u at 226.5), UTA-ATL (o/u at 245.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 58-93 SU and 61-85-5 ATS (41.8%) slide, including 32-54-3 ATS in the last 89 games and 20-36 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-8.5 at NOP)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 277-144 SU but just 179-229-13 ATS (43.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10 vs. SAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 309-264 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-DEN (o/u at 240.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 292-304 SU and 268-320-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-9 vs. PHX)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 333-298 SU but 287-325-17 ATS (46.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-10 vs. SAC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 179-151 SU and 184-137-9 ATS (57.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+3 vs. TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 82-88 SU but 97-71-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY ATS): PHOENIX (+9 at NYK)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +20.5 (+2.0)
2. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+1.8)
3. BROOKLYN +3 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -9 (+1.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+1.5)
3. CHICAGO -9 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +3 (+5.3)
2. HOUSTON +5.5 (+3.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +8 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -10 (+1.8)
2. NEW YORK -9 (+0.8)
3. CHICAGO -9 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-NYK OVER 225.5 (+2.5)
2. TOR-BKN OVER 214.5 (+2.3)
3. HOU-GSW OVER 224.5 (+1.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-BOS UNDER 226.5 (-1.5)
2(tie). UTA-ATL UNDER 245.5 (-0.5)
MIL-NOP UNDER 221.5 (-0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +20.5 (+3.8)
2. BROOKLYN +3 (+2.0)
3. SAN ANTONIO +4.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -9 (+2.2)
2. MILWAUKEE -8 (+1.9)
3. CHICAGO -9 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOU-GSW OVER 224.5 (+2.1)
2. MIL-NOP OVER 221.5 (+1.7)
3. TOR-BKN OVER 214.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-CLE UNDER 236 (-2.2)
2. SAS-POR UNDER 228.5 (-2.1)
3. WSH-BOS UNDER 226.5 (-1.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(511) CHICAGO at (512) CHARLOTTE
* Favroties are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 of the CHI-CHA head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(513) TORONTO at (514) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of TOR-BKN head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) LA LAKERS at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the LAL-OKC head-to-head series at OKC
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(517) SACRAMENTO at (518) CLEVELAND
* SACRAMENTO is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head games versus CLE
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

(523) UTAH at (524) ATLANTA
* UTAH is 7-2 ATS in head-to-head games versus ATL since 2021
Trend Match: PLAY UTAH ATS

(525) PHOENIX at (526) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the PHX-NYK head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(529) HOUSTON at (530) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is on runs of 16-1 SU in the last 17 and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games versus HOU
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE

(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 14-2 in the last 16 of the MIL-NOP head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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