Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, February 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:
– DALLAS (+13 at CLE)
Four different systems fading Cleveland today
– MEMPHIS (+3 at MIL)
Good head-to-head history versus opponent and a couple of fades for Milwaukee
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* MEMPHIS is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games versus Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3 at MIL)
* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-277 SU and 242-297-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+11 vs. BOS)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, CLEVELAND ML, MILWAUKEE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-DET
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-DET, MEM-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 148-99 SU but 107-137-3 ATS (43.9%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
2/2: Fade CLEVELAND vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. DAL)
* MILWAUKEE is on a 43-42 SU and 31-53-1 ATS skid in the last 85 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/2: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Memphis
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3 vs. MEM)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 221-41 SU but just 122-135-5 ATS (47.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 96-80 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 187-160 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 252-195 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER- DAL-CLE (o/u at 236)
UNDER – BOS-PHI (o/u at 223)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 225-128 SU but 159-187-7 ATS (46%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 32-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-13 vs. DAL)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams, off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored, have gone 144-86 SU but 103-123-4 ATS (45.6%) in the follow-up contest over the last 6 seasons. Included among this is an 88-109 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-3 vs. MEM)
Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 258-135 SU but just 170-211-12 ATS (44.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-11 at PHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-277 SU and 242-297-7 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+11 vs. BOS)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 295-272 SU but 253-297-15 ATS (46%) the next game over the lst four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+11 vs. BOS)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 179-67 SU and 132-111-3 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3 vs. MEM)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3 (+1.6)
2. TORONTO +6 (+1.1)
3. PHILADELPHIA +11 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -13 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3 (+3.6)
2. DALLAS +13 (+0.5)
3. TORONTO +6 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BOSTON -11 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DAL-CLE OVER 236 (+1.2)
2. MEM-MIL OVER 246.5 (+0.5)
3. BOS-PHI OVER 223 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHI-DET UNDER 233.5 (-2.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MEMPHIS +3 (+2.0)
2. TORONTO +6 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -11 (+3.1)
2. CLEVELAND -13 (+2.8)
3. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-TOR OVER 220 (+3.1)
2. DAL-CLE OVER 236 (+1.4)
3. BOS-PHI OVER 223 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: CHI-DET UNDER 233.5 (-1.4)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(567) DALLAS at (568) CLEVELAND
* Road teams have covered eight straight ATS in the DAL-CLE non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(569) LA CLIPPERS at (570) TORONTO
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups between LAC and TOR
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(573) MEMPHIS at (574) MILWAUKEE
* MEMPHIS is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games versus Milwaukee
Trend Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS
