The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, February 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. Here are today’s results:

– PHX-TOR Under 226
Several scheduling situations + recent head-to-head trend favors Under

– MEMPHIS (+6 at CLE)
Extreme stats system fade CLE + a couple of Makinen ratings projections Underrate MEM

– OKC-MIN Under 230
Several scheduling situations, Makinen ratings projections, and recent head-to-head trend favors Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Favorites are 15-4 in the last 19 of the Washington-Orlando divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-13 vs. WSH)

* Under the total is on a 68-28-1 (70.8%) in the last 97 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches: PLAY Under in all games today except LAC-IND 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 46-44 SU and 33-56-1 ATS (37.1%) skid in the last 90 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs. MIA) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an Underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home Underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): DAL-GSW, LAC-IND, PHX-TOR, DET-ATL, WSH-ORL, MIA-MIL, SAS-NOP, MEM-CLE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-ATL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch Under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY Under): WSH-ORL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): DET-ATL, SAS-NOP, MEM-CLE

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 84-51 SU and 81-51-3 ATS (61.4%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
2/23: DETROIT at Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 at ATL) 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 82-62 SU and 76-65-3 ATS (53.9%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
2/23: BOSTON vs. New York
2/23: ATLANTA vs. Detroit
2/23: MINNESOTA vs. Oklahoma City
2/23: NEW ORLEANS vs. San Antonio
2/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Dallas
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), ATLANTA (+3 v.s DET), MINNESOTA (+9.5 vs. OKC), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 v.s SAS), GOLDEN STATE (-9 v.s DAL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 85-43 SU and 75-48-5 ATS (61%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
2/23: TORONTO vs. Phoenix
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs. PHX)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 56-50 SU and 56-47-3 ATS (54.4%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
2/23: MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
2/23: MINNESOTA vs. Oklahoma City
2/23: ORLANDO vs. Washington
2/23: GOLDEN STATE vs. Dallas
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs. MIA), MINNESOTA (+9.5 vs. OKC), ORLANDO (-13 vs. WSH), GOLDEN STATE (-9 v.s DAL) 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 37-19 SU and 35-18-3 ATS (66%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
2/23: INDIANA vs. LA Clippers
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 vs. LAC) 

* Home teams playing on One Day Rest game are 16-10 SU and ATS (61.5%) hosting teams playing in a 3rd Road in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
2/23: MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
2/23: MINNESOTA vs. Oklahoma City
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs. MIA), MINNESOTA (+9.5 v.s OKC) 

* Under the total was 82-59 (58.2%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
2/23: Under the total in INDIANA-LA CLIPPERS
2/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-DETROIT
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): LAC-IND (o/u at 231.5), DET-ATL (o/u at 239), 

* Under the total was 56-22 (71.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
2/23: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-MIAMI
2/23: Under the total in MINNESOTA-OKLAHOMA CITY
2/23: Under the total in ORLANDO-WASHINGTON
2/23: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-DALLAS
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): MIA-MIL (o/u at 221.5), OKC-MIN (o/u at 230), WSH-ORL (o/u at 216.5), DAL-GSW (o/u at 230) 

* Under the total was 106-63 (62.7%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
2/23: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-INDIANA
2/23: Under the total in NEW YORK-BOSTON
2/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-DETROIT
2/23: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-MIAMI
2/23: Under the total in ORLANDO-WASHINGTON
2/23: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MINNESOTA
2/23: Under the total in PHOENIX-TORONTO
2/23: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-NEW ORLEANS
2/23: Under the total in DALLAS-GOLDEN STATE
System Matches: PLAY Under in all games today except MEM-CLE 

* Under the total is on a 68-28-1 (70.8%) in the last 97 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
2/23: Under the total in BOSTON-NEW YORK
2/23: Under the total in CLEVELAND-MEMPHIS
2/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-DETROIT
2/23: Under the total in MILWAUKEE-MIAMI
2/23: Under the total in ORLANDO-WASHINGTON
2/23: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MINNESOTA
2/23: Under the total in PHOENIX-TORONTO
2/23: Under the total in SAN ANTONIO-NEW ORLEANS
2/23: Under the total in DALLAS-GOLDEN STATE
System Matches: PLAY Under in all games today except LAC-IND

* Under the total was 69-45 (60.5%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.
2/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-DETROIT
2/23: Under the total in DALLAS-GOLDEN STATE
2/23: Under the total in INDIANA-LA CLIPPERS
2/23: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-MINNESOTA
System Matches (PLAY Under ALL): DET-ATL (o/u at 239), DAL-GSW (o/u at 230), LAC-IND (o/u at 231.5), OKC-MIN (o/u at 230) 

* Under the total was 33-16 (67.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/23: Under the total in TORONTO-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY Under): PHX-TOR (o/u at 226) 

* Under the total was 22-8 (73.3%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Home in 8+ Days game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
2/23: Under the total in TORONTO-PHOENIX
System Match (PLAY Under): PHX-TOR (o/u at 226)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* MIAMI is on a 19-14 SU and 21-11-1 ATS run when playing a 4th Straight Road game
2/23: MIAMI at Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at MIL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 46-44 SU and 33-56-1 ATS skid in the last 90 when playing on standard One Day Rest
2/23: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Miami
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs MIA) 

* NEW YORK is on 28-21 SU and 32-17 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
2/23: NEW YORK at Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+9 at BOS) 

* TORONTO is on a 31-20 SU and ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Home game
2/23: TORONTO vs. Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs PHX) 

* WASHINGTON is on 2-18 SU and 8-12 ATS skid when playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game
2/23: FADE WASHINGTON at Orlando
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+13 at ORL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 143-51 SU and 115-78-1 ATS (59.6%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs. NYK), CLEVELAND (-6 vs. MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 99-82 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 195-163 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference game Over the total was 261-199 (56.7%).
System Match (PLAY Under): WSH-ORL (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 232-129 SU but 163-190-8 ATS (46.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-33-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-6 vs MEM) 

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 262-139 SU but just 171-218-12 ATS (44%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 vs MIA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 283-222 SU but 223-268-14 ATS (45.4%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 40-66 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs DAL), CLEVELAND (-6 vs MEM) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 269-285 SU and 245-302-7 ATS (44.8%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-6 vs MEM)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 298-281 SU but 258-303-16 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-9 vs NYK), GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs DAL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page Under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +1.5 (+2.8)
2. ATLANTA +3 (+2.3)
3. MEMPHIS +6 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.2)
2(tie). INDIANA -3.5 (+0.7)
ORLANDO -13 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +9 (+5.1)
2. MEMPHIS +6 (+3.2)
3. ATLANTA +3 (+3.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -13 (+2.4)
2. BOSTON -9 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-BOS OVER 232 (+1.7)
2. MEM-CLE OVER 250 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING Under according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKC-MIN Under 230 (-3.2)
2. SAS-NOP Under 242 (-2.2)
3. WSH-ORL Under 216.5 (-1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +1.5 (+3.0)
2. MEMPHIS +6 (+2.9)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -13 (+2.6)
2. BOSTON -9 (+2.3)
3. INDIANA -3.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-TOR OVER 226 (+3.6)
2. DAL-GSW OVER 230.5 (+2.5)
3. MIA-MIL OVER 221.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING Under according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAS-NOP Under 242 (-4.8)
2. OKC-MIN Under 230 (-4.3)
3. LAC-IND Under 231.5 (-2.0) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) NEW YORK at (530) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six games versus NYK
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(531) DALLAS at (532) GOLDEN STATE
* DALLAS is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games versus GSW
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of DAL-GSW h2h series at Golden State
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(533) LA CLIPPERS at (534) INDIANA
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the LAC-IND non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(535) PHOENIX at (536) TORONTO
* Under the total has converted in six straight games between PHX and TOR
Trend Match: PLAY Under the total 

(537) DETROIT at (538) ATLANTA
* Road teams have covered six straight ATS in matchups between DET and ATL
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the DET-ATL series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(539) WASHINGTON at (540) ORLANDO
* Favorites are 15-4 in the last 19 of the WSH-ORL divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(543) SAN ANTONIO at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games versus SAS
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(547) OKLAHOMA CITY at (548) MINNESOTA
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the OKC-MIN series at Minnesota
Trend Match: PLAY Under the total

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