The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 12, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

*In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 102-67 SU & 102-64-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.

System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 at UTA)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-28 SU & 44-23-1 ATS in its L68 road games when playing on standard OneDayRest

Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at ORL)

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 267-210 SU but 207-258-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.

System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4 vs SAC)

* OVER the total is 8-1 in L9 of CHA-PHX h2h series at Phoenix

Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the side of a HOME TEAM playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MILWAUKEE, SACRAMENTO, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, UTAH, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, BOSTON, UTAH, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority MONEY LINE HANDLE was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on HANDLE for +30 units, a R.O.I. of 11.5%. This R.O.I. is a notable improvement over all other matchups.

System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority HANDLE groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, a R.O.I. of -39.2%. while majority NUMBER OF BETS groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, a R.O.I. of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.

System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY ML

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-NYK, SAC-CHI, PHI-ORL, BKN-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and a R.O.I. of +4.8% since January ’23.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-WSH, SAC-CHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority HANDLE bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority NUMBER of BETS groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – PHI-ORL, BKN-UTA

Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rdStraightHome game were 74-39 SU & 65-44-4 ATS (59.6%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the L2 seasons.

1/12: PHOENIX vs. Charlotte

System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-7 vs CHA)

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 30-38 SU BUT 40-28-2 ATS (58.8%) facing hosts playing a 3rdHomein4Days game over the L4 seasons.

1/12: CHARLOTTE at Phoenix

System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+7 at PHX)

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 39-39 SU & 45-32-1 ATS (58.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over L2 seasons.

1/12: PHOENIX vs. Charlotte

System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-7 vs CHA)

* Home teams playing in a 3rdHomein4Days game scenario were 31-22 SU & 30-21-2 ATS (58.8%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rdin4Days game.

1/12: PHOENIX vs. Charlotte

System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-7 vs CHA)

* Hosts playing in a A2H b2b game scenario are 21-33 SU & 20-33-1 ATS (37.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on OneDayRest.

1/12: FADE UTAH vs. Brooklyn

System Match (FADE): UTAH (-4.5 vs BKN)

* UNDER the total was 110-84-1 (56.7%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rdHomein4Days game.

1/12: UNDER the total in ORLANDO-PHILADELPHIA

System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ORL (o/u at 206.5)

* OVER the total was 88-72 (55%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.

1/12: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-PHOENIX

System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-PHX (o/u at 224)

* OVER the total was 87-61 (58.8%) over the L4 seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rdStraightRoad game.

1/12: OVER the total in PHOENIX-CHARLOTTE

System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-PHX (o/u at 224)

* OVER the total was 41-28 (59.4%) over the L3 seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.

1/12: OVER the total in PHOENIX-CHARLOTTE

System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-PHX (o/u at 224)

* OVER the total is 33-21 (61.1%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.

1/12: OVER the total in UTAH-BROOKLYN

System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-UTA (o/u at 215)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* DALLAS is 17-13 SU but 8-20-2 ATS over the L4 seasons when playing at home after 2DaysRest

1/12: FADE DALLAS vs. Denver

Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs DEN)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 39-40 SU & 27-51-1 ATS skid in L79 when playing on standard OneDayRest

1/12: FADE MILWAUKEE at New York

Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 at NYK)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 40-28 SU & 44-23-1 ATS in its L68 road games when playing on standard OneDayRest

1/12: PHILADELPHIA at Orlando

Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at ORL)

* PHOENIX is 21-15 SU but 13-22-1 ATS in its L36 3rdStraightHome games

1/12: FADE PHOENIX vs. Charlotte

Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-7 vs CHA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 102-67 SU & 102-64-3 ATS (61.4%) surge.

System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:

Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 199-38 SU but just 111-122-4 ATS (47.6%) over the last four seasons.

System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 at WSH), BOSTON (-14.5 vs NOP)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 93-79 (54.1%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 173-149 (53.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 244-191 (56.1%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-WSH (o/u at 231), NOP-BOS (o/u at 229)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts

8) NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 267-210 SU but 207-258-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.

System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4 vs SAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems

12) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 257-274 SU & 234-290-7 ATS (44.7%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16 at WSH)

13) Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 288-260 SU & 248-286-12 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the L4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4 vs SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #8:

Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 218-267-3 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-121 SU & 62-81-5 ATS (43.4%).

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 vs IND)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:

Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 54-70-1 ATS (43.5%) in the next game, including 23-38 ATS (37.7%) on the road over the L4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9 vs IND)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +6.5 (+2.8)

2(tie). MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+1.4)
PHILADELPHIA +1 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+3.7)
2. BOSTON -15 (+1.3)
3. CLEVELAND -9 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +15.5 (+5.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +15 (+4.7)
3. DALLAS +6.5 (+3.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.9)
2. SACRAMENTO -4 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 2 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-DAL OVER 230.5 (+1.0)
2. SAC-CHI OVER 238 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-PHX UNDER 225 (-4.4)
2. OKC-WSH UNDER 231.5 (-2.6)
3. IND-CLE UNDER 240.5 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +6.5 (+3.9)
2. MILWAUKEE +4.5 (+2.3)
3. PHILADELPHIA +1 (+2.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+2.6)
2. BOSTON -15 (+1.5)
3. PHOENIX -7 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAC-CHI OVER 238 (+3.0)
2. DEN-DAL OVER 230.5 (+1.0)
3. MIL-NYK OVER 228 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1.CHA-PHX UNDER 225 (-5.0)
2. NOP-BOS UNDER 229.5 (-3.9)
3. OKC-WSH UNDER 231.5 (-2.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) NEW YORK

* UNDER the total is 5-1-1 in L7 h2h meetings between MIL and NYK in New York

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(537) PHILADELPHIA at (538) ORLANDO

* PHILADELPHIA is on extended 14-4 ATS run in h2h series with Orlando

Trend Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(539) OKLAHOMA CITY at (540) WASHINGTON

* OVER the total has converted in 6 straight h2h games between OKC and WSH

Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

* UNDERDOGS have covered 6 straight ATS in OKC-WSH h2h series in Washington

Trend Match: PLAY WASHINGTON ATS

(541) NEW ORLEANS at (542) BOSTON

* BOSTON is 5-1 ATS in L6 games versus New Orleans

Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(543) BROOKLYN at (544) UTAH

* UNDERDOGS have covered 6 straight ATS in BKN-UTA h2h series

Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(545) CHARLOTTE at (546) PHOENIX

* OVER the total is 8-1 in L9 of CHA-PHX h2h series at Phoenix

Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

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