The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* ORLANDO has covered seven straight ATS in games versus Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+8 vs DEN) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-11 SU and 32-11-2 ATS (74.4%) in their last 45 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 at POR) 

*NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 268-215 SU but 208-262-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-4 vs. LAL)

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 76-39 SU and 66-44-5 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs. PHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, CHICAGO, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – MIAMI ML, MILWAUKEE ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, SACRAMENTO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS ML 

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over and Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): WSH-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-MIL, BKN-OKC, LAL-LAC 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 76-39 SU and 66-44-5 ATS (60%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/19: MILWAUKEE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs. PHI)

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 34-19 SU and 34-18-1 ATS (65.4%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
1/19: MILWAUKEE vs. Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs. PHI) 

* Under the total was 111-87-1 (56.1%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/19: Under the total in PORTLAND-CHICAGO
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-POR (o/u at 236.5) 

* Over the total was 89-72 (55.3%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
1/19: Over the total in PHILADELPHIA-MILWAUKEE
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIL (o/u at 223) 

* LA CLIPPERS are 18-16 SU but 7-27 ATS in their last 34 games at home playing on 2 Days Rest
1/19: Fade LA CLIPPERS vs. La Lakers
Trend Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-4 vs. LAL) 

* MILWAUKEE is on a 41-41 SU and 29-52-1 ATS skid in the last 82 when playing on standard One Day Rest
1/19: Fade MILWAUKEE vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-12.5 vs. PHI)

* WASHINGTON is on 10-11 SU and 14-6 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
1/19: WASHINGTON at Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+17.5 at SAC) 

* LA CLIPPERS are 29-8 UNDER the total since 2020-21 when playing at home on 2 Days Rest
1/19: Under the total in LA CLIPPERS-LA LAKERS
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-LAC (o/u at 215) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 206-38 SU but just 113-126-5 ATS (47.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17 vs BKN), SACRAMENTO (-17.5 vs WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 94-79 (54.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 179-150 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 248-192 (56.4%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-MIL (o/u at 223), BKN-OKC (o/u at 216), WSH-SAC (o/u at 235)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 268-215 SU but 208-262-13 ATS (44.3%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-65 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-4 vs, LAL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 279-242 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIL (o/u at 223)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 288-262 SU and 248-287-13 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17 vs. BKN), WASHINGTON (+17.5 at SAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 147-164 SU and 142-161-8 ATS (46.9%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17.5 at SAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 34-11 SU and 32-11-2 ATS (74.4%) in their last 45 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 at POR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 69-78 SU but 81-64-3 ATS (55.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 at POR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 220-269-3 ATS (45%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-122 SU and 63-81-5 ATS (43.8%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+17.5 at SAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +8 (+2.7)
2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+1.7)
3. LA LAKERS +4 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO -17.5 (+0.8)
2. MIAMI -3 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +8 (+2.6)
2. PHILADELPHIA +12.5 (+0.8)
3. WASHINGTON +17.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -6.5 (+1.5)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+1.0)
3. LA CLIPPERS -4 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-SAC OVER 235 (+1.4)
2. SAS-MIA OVER 219.5 (+1.0)
3. DEN-ORL OVER 222 (+0.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BKN-OKC UNDER 216 (-2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO +8 (+4.3)
2. PORTLAND +6.5 (+1.2)
3. PHILADELPHIA +12.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -17 (+0.2)
2. SACRAMENTO -17.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). CHI-POR OVER 236.5 (+3.1)
WSH-SAC OVER 235 (+3.1)
3. DEN-ORL OVER 222 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BKN-OKC UNDER 216 (-4.5)
2(tie). SAS-MIA UNDER 219.5 (-0.3)
LAL-LAC UNDER 215 (-0.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) SAN ANTONIO at (502) MIAMI
* ROAD TEAMS are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight of the SAS-MIL non-Conference series
Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(503) DENVER at (504) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has covered seven straight games versus Denver
Trend Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(507) BROOKLYN at (508) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites have covered five straight ATS in the BKN-OKC series at OKC
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY ATS

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