The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 71-27 SU and 62-35-1 ATS (63.9%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at WSH) 

* Over the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the Charlotte-Cleveland series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in CHA-CLE (o/u at 224) 

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 52-67-1 ATS (43.7%) in the next game, including 23-37 ATS (38.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. CHA)

* UTAH is 13-20 SU but 24-9 ATS in its last 33 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6 at ORL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 60-86 ATS (41.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND ML, ORLANDO ML, GOLDEN STATE ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON ML, LA LAKERS ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-WSH, LAL-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): NOP-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-ORL
UNDER – LAL-HOU 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 30-21 SU and 29-20-2 ATS (59.2%) since the start of last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
1/5: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Boston
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs. BOS)

* Under the total was 109-81-1 (57.4%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
1/5: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-SACRAMENTO
1/5: Under the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-BOSTON
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-OKC (o/u at 222.5), SAC-GSW (o/u at 224) 

* LA LAKERS are on a 16-29 SU and 15-29-1 ATS skid in last 45 playing a 3rd in 4 days game
1/5: Fade LA LAKERS at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+4.5 at HOU)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 21-3 SU and 19-5 ATS surge when playing 4th Straight Home game
1/5: OKLAHOMA CITY vs. Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs. BOS)

* UTAH is 13-20 SU but 24-9 ATS in its last 33 3rd Straight Road games
1/5: UTAH at Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6 at ORL) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-10 Over the total in its last 32 3rd Straight Home games
1/5: Over the total in OKLAHOMA CITY-BOSTON
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-OKC (o/u at 222.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 101-67 SU and 101-64-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 71-27 SU and 62-35-1 ATS (63.9%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at WSH) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 171-146 (53.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 242-186 (56.5%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-CLE (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 140-53 SU and 115-76-2 ATS (60.2%) in their last 193 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs. LAL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 255-272 SU and 232-288-7 ATS (44.6%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs. SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 285-259 SU and 245-285-12 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-3 vs SAC), SACRAMENTO (+3 at GSW)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 146-164 SU and 141-161-8 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+3 at GSW)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 30-64 SU but 51-43 ATS (54.3%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+15.5 at CLE) 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 102-17 SU BUT 53-64-3 ATS (45.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 214-264-3 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-120 SU and 61-81-5 ATS (43%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 52-67-1 ATS (43.7%) in the next game, including 23-37 ATS (38.3%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-2 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs. CHA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+2.1)
2. BOSTON +2 (+1.3)
3. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -3 (+1.8)
2. ORLANDO -6 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+2.4)
2. BOSTON +2 (+0.3)
3. UTAH +6 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+2.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE -3 (+1.5)
3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-ORL OVER 212 (+0.7)
2. SAC-GSW OVER 224 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAL-HOU UNDER 218 (-1.3)
2. NOP-WSH UNDER 233.5 (-0.5)
3. BOS-OKC UNDER 222.5 (-0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON +2 (+2.1)
2. LA LAKERS +4.5 (+1.1)
3. WASHINGTON +4.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -6 (+2.4)
2. GOLDEN STATE -3 (+2.0)
3. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UTA-ORL OVER 212 (+3.4)
2. CHA-CLE OVER 224 (+1.6)
3. SAC-GSW OVER 224 (+1.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: LAL-HOU UNDER 218 (-0.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) BOSTON at (502) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total has converted in seven straight meetings between OKC and BOS
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(503) CHARLOTTE at (504) CLEVELAND
* Over the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the CHA-CLE series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(509) LA LAKERS at (510) HOUSTON
* Over the total is on an extended 10-3 run when LAL visits Houston
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(511) SACRAMENTO at (512) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs have covered seven straight ATS in the SAC-GSW rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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