The following NBA betting trends are is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 56-46-1 (54.9%). Here are today’s results:

– TORONTO (-2 vs. SAS)
Scheduling situation and Makinen bettors ratings projection favors TOR

– BOSTON (-7.5 at POR)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, streak system #4, and recent head-to-head trend all favor BOS + scheduling situation and extreme stat system #8 fade POR

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-52 SU and 120-79-1 ATS (60.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs. DEN)

* Over the total was 22-12 (64.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head back-to-back and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 240)

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 38-13 SU and 34-15-2 ATS (69.4%) in their last 51 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-16 at UTA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CLEVELAND, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI

Here are some more specific MONEY LINE angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – DETROIT ML, TORONTO ML, MIAMI ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NOP-DET, SAS-TOR
UNDER – CLE-UTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-POR, CHA-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 192-130 SU and 187-127 ATS (59.6%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 3+ DaysRest are 70-33 SU and 64-37-2 ATS (63.4%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/23: TORONTO vs. San Antonio
Systems Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-2 vs. SAS)

* Home teams playing a head-to-head back-to-back game were 47-52 SU but 53-44-2 ATS (54.6%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
* Hosts playing in a head-to-head back-to-back game scenario were 25-27 SU and 29-23 ATS (55.8%) over the last two seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.
3/23: ATLANTA vs. Philadelphia
Systems Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs. PHI)

* Over the total was 118-82 (59%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
* Over the total was 60-43 (58.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/23: Over the total in TORONTO-SAN ANTONIO
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-TOR (o/u at 234)

* Over the total was 98-71 (58%) over the L4 seasons when the home team was on a head-to-head back-to-back and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
* Over the total was 22-12 (64.7%) since the start of last season when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the road team was playing a 4thStraightRoad game.
3/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 240)

* DENVER is on a 4-17 ATS skid (11-10 SU) playing its 3rd Straight Road game since the start of last season
3/23: Fade DENVER at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+7.5 at HOU)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 41-37 SU and 46-31-1 ATS in its last 78 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
3/23: PHILADELPHIA at Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+9.5 at ATL)

* PORTLAND is 34-69 SU and 42-61 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
3/23: Fade PORTLAND vs. Boston
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+7.5 vs. BOS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 148-52 SU and 120-79-1 ATS (60.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs. DEN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 249-46 SU but just 137-152-6 ATS (47.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): DETROIT (-12.5 vs. NOP), CLEVELAND (-16 at UTA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 106-88 (54.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 213-168 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 269-210 (56.2%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NOP-DET (o/u at 229.5), CLE-UTA (o/u at 241)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 243-132 SU but 171-196-8 ATS (46.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAC)

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 77-55 SU and 68-62-2 ATS (52.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAC)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 296-226 SU but 234-273-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last six seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 41-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+7.5 vs. BOS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 282-299 SU and 257-316-8 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs. DEN), OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAC), LA CLIPPERS (+3 vs. OKC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going 324-293 SU but 279-319-17 ATS (46.7%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 160-175 SU and 151-175-9 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 at LAC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 38-13 SU and 34-15-2 ATS (69.4%) in their last 51 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-16 at UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 71-18 SU and 50-36-3 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at POR)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.0% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their L4 games or more have taken on losing teams (198-219 ATS, 47.5%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (275-270 ATS, 50.5%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-16 at UTA), MIAMI (-4.5 vs CHA)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 77-86 SU but 93-68-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-16 at UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 247-298-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU and 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-4.5 vs. CHA), HOUSTON (-7.5 vs. DEN)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 58-82-1 ATS (41.4%) in the next game, including 27-41 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs. DEN)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +7.5 (+3.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3 (+1.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: ATLANTA -9.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +2 (+4.6)
2. NEW ORLEANS +12.5 (+2.2)
3. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-HOU OVER 224 (+5.2)
2. CLE-UTA OVER 241 (+1.1)
3. NOP-DET OVER 229.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-POR UNDER 218.5 (-4.9)
2. CHA-MIA UNDER 211.5 (-2.6)
3. PHI-ATL UNDER 240.5 (-1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +7.5 (+3.9)
2. UTAH +16 (+1.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DETROIT -12.5 (+1.4)
2. ATLANTA -9.5 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO -2 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-HOU OVER 224 (+7.2)
2. NOP-DET OVER 229.5 (+1.2)
3. CLE-UTA OVER 241 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-POR UNDER 218.5 (-4.2)
2. OKC-LAC UNDER 226.5 (-3.0)
3. SAS-TOR UNDER 234 (-1.1)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(531) NEW ORLEANS at (532) DETROIT
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the NOP-DET head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(533) CLEVELAND at (534) UTAH
* Over the total has converted in five straight head-to-head matchups between CLE and UTA
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(535) PHILADELPHIA at (536) ATLANTA
* Over the total has converted in six straight head-to-head meetings between PHI and ATL
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(539) BOSTON at (540) PORTLAND
* BOSTON is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight visits to Portland
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the BOS-POR head-to-head non-conference series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(541) CHARLOTTE at (542) MIAMI
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the CHA-MIA head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(543) DENVER at (544) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games versus Denver
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the OKC-LAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY

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