The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 65-51-2 (56%). Here are today’s results:

-SAN ANTONIO (+12 vs GSW)

Scheduling situation, three Makinen ratings projections, and recent h2h trend all favor SAS

-DET-MIN UNDER 225

Scheduling situation, extreme stat system #11, and recent h2h trend all favor UNDER

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* OVER the total is 9-2 in L11 h2h games when the Hornets visit the Pelicans

Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-NOP (o/u at 212.5)

* NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 289-302 SU & 264-319-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at CLE)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority HANDLE on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 UNITS – ROI: -1.2%

– Majority NUMBER OF BETS on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 UNITS – ROI: -10%

– Majority HANDLE on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 UNITS – ROI: -16.3%

– Majority NUMBER OF BETS on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 UNITS – ROI: -1.8%

– Majority HANDLE on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 UNITS – ROI: +1.2%- 

– Majority NUMBER OF BETS on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 UNITS – ROI: -4.2%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the side of a HOME TEAM playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, GOLDEN STATE, TORONTO, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, PORTLAND, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

Here are some more specific money line angles:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and a ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and a ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, MILWAUKEE ML, MINNESOTA ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority HANDLE groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a R.O.I. of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE ML

These last two systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking OVER’s. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a R.O.I. of +6.5% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-NOP, TOR-PHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority HANDLE bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority NUMBER of BETS groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHA-NOP

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 48-52 SU but 54-44-2 ATS (55.1%) hosting teams playing a 3rdStraightRoad game over L2 seasons.

* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 26-27 SU & 30-23 ATS (56.6%) over L2 seasons hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game.

3/30: SAN ANTONIO vs. Golden State
Systems Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+12 vs GSW)

* GOLDEN STATE is on extended slide of 46-60 SU & 43-63 ATS when playing on the road on OneDayRest

3/30: FADE GOLDEN STATE at San Antonio
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-12 at SAS)

* OVER the total was 99-71 (58.2%) over the L4 seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.

* OVER the total was 23-12 (65.7%) since start of last season when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a 4th Straight Road game.

3/30: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-GOLDEN STATE
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 231)

* UNDER the total is on a 82-35-1 (70.1%) in L118 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4thGamein10+Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a OneDayRest game.

3/30: UNDER the total in MINNESOTA-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-MIN (o/u at 225.5)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 53-50 SU & 42-58-3 ATS skid in L103 when playing on standard OneDayRest

3/30: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-4 vs ATL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 112-76 SU & 113-72-3 ATS (61.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+3 at NOP), TORONTO (-4.5 at PHI)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 107-88 (54.9%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 219-169 (56.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 273-212 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 231)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 308-260 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-CLE (o/u at 229.5), DET-MIN (o/u at 225.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 289-302 SU & 264-319-8 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at CLE)

NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 179-149 SU & 184-135-9 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 2.7% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their L4 games or more have taken on LOSING TEAMS (204-224 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced WINNING TEAMS (275-272 ATS, 50.3%) over the L4 seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+3 at NOP), PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs TOR)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 250-300-3 ATS (45.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-133 SU & 70-88-5 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs TOR) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+2.7)
SAN ANTONIO +12 (+2.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -8 (+2.5)
2. MINNESOTA -7 (+2.3)
3. HOUSTON -2 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+3.9)
2. SAN ANTONIO +12 (+3.1)
3. PORTLAND +8 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -2 (+1.6)
2. MINNESOTA -7 (+1.1)
3. CLEVELAND -7.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-NOP OVER 212.5 (+3.9)
2. POR-NYK OVER 220.5 (+3.3)
3. HOU-PHX OVER 222 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-PHI UNDER 224 (-1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +12 (+3.2)
2. PHILADELPHIA +4.5 (+2.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS +7.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -8 (+2.1)
2. MINNESOTA -7 (+1.7)
3. HOUSTON -2 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHA-NOP OVER 212.5 (+6.8)
2. POR-NYK OVER 220.5 (+3.1)
3. HOU-PHX OVER 222 (+2.8)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) LA CLIPPERS at (558) CLEVELAND

* OVER the total is 7-2 in L9 of LAC-CLE h2h series

Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(559) PORTLAND at (560) NEW YORK

* NEW YORK is 5-1 ATS in L6 games hosting Portland

Trend Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(561) CHARLOTTE at (562) NEW ORLEANS

* OVER the total is 9-2 in L11 h2h games when CHA visits New Orleans

Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total

(563) GOLDEN STATE at (564) SAN ANTONIO

* UNDERDOGS are 6-7 SU but 10-3 ATS in L13 of GSW-SAS h2h series

Trend Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(567) DETROIT at (568) MINNESOTA

* UNDER the total is 8-2 in L10 of DET-MIN h2h nonconference series at Minnesota

Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(569) TORONTO at (570) PHILADELPHIA

* FAVORITES are 6-2 ATS in L8 of TOR-PHI h2h divisional rivalry

Trend Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(571) HOUSTON at (572) PHOENIX

* HOUSTON is 6-2 SU & ATS in L8 games versus PHX

Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

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