Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, November 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 62-29 SU and 55-34-2 ATS (61.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs. DAL)
* Under the total was 37-18 (67.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-BOS (o/u at 222)
-NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-50 SU and 111-71-2 ATS (61%) in their last 184 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-9 vs BKN)
* Home teams are on an extended run of 16-3-3 ATS in the WSH-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA (-11.5 vs. WSH)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, LA CLIPPERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CLEVELAND
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the hone or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, CLEVELAND ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON ML, DALLAS ML
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-PHI, DAL-MIA, BKN-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): TOR-CLE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY): LAC-PHI (HANDLE favors UNDER, NUMBER OF BETS favors OVER)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-PHI, DAL-MIA, BKN-SAC
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 181-123 SU and 175-121 ATS (59.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last four seasons.
11/24: MIAMI vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs. DAL)
* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 75-48 SU and 69-51-3 ATS (57.5%) hosting road teams on OneDayRest over the last four seasons.
11/24: MIAMI vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs. DAL)
* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest are 62-29 SU & 55-34-2 ATS (61.8%) hosting road teams on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
11/24: MIAMI vs. Dallas
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 vs DAL)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 47-36 SU and 47-34-2 ATS (58%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
11/24: BOSTON vs. Minnesota
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-8 vs. MIN)
* OVER the total was 106-76 (58.2%) over the last three seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
11/24: Over the total in DALLAS-MIAMI
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIA (o/u at 222.5)
* OVER the total was 52-39 (57.1%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/24: Over the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIA (o/u at 222.5)
* Under the total was 37-18 (67.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
11/24: Under the total in BOSTON-MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-BOS (o/u at 222)
* UNDER the total was on a 36-12 (75%) run to close last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/24: Under the total in MINNESOTA-BOSTON
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-BOS (o/u at 222)
11/24: Under the total in MIAMI-DALLAS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-MIA (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 90-77 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 162-140 (53.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-168 (57.9%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-IND (o/u at 241.5), TOR-CLE (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Favorites flush low scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 134-50 SU and 111-71-2 ATS (61%) in their last 184 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-9 vs. BKN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 272-227 (54.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-CLE (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (169-188 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (227-220 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 202-248-1 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 26-110 SU and 58-75-3 ATS (43.6%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at IND)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +2 (+3.2)
2. BROOKLYN +9 (+2.1)
3. WASIHNGTON +11.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
CLEVELAND -12 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +8 (+1.8)
2. BROOKLYN +9 (+0.5)
3. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND -12 (+3.3)
2. LA CLIPPERS -2 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-CLE OVER 234.5 (+3.7)
2. DAL-MIA OVER 222.5 (+1.5)
3. BKN-SAC OVER 224 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-PHI UNDER 211 (-9.5)
2. WSH-IND UNDER 241.5 (-1.6)
3. MIN-BOS UNDER 222 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +2 (+4.0)
2. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+1.8)
3. DALLAS +3 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
CLEVELAND -12 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. WSH-IND OVER 241.5 (+1.9)
2. MIN-BOS OVER 222 (+1.4)
3. TOR-CLE OVER 234.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-PHI UNDER 211 (-5.5)
2. DAL-MIA UNDER 222.5 (-0.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) MINNESOTA at (502) BOSTON
* Over the total is 9-3 in the last 12 games of the MIN-BOS nonconference series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(503) WASHINGTON at (504) INDIANA
* Home teams are on an extended run of 16-3-3 ATS in the WSH-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS
(507) DALLAS at (508) MIAMI
* DALLAS is 6-2 ATS in the series with MIA since 2021
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS
(509) TORONTO at (510) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the TOR-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
(511) BROOKLYN at (512) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six games between BKN and SAC in Sacramento
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
