The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Road teams are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 of the POR-MEM series (including seven straight covers for PORTLAND on the road at Memphis)
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at MEM) 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 61-41 SU and 66-35-1 ATS (65.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 at SAC) 

–Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 184-34 SU but just 99-116-3 ATS (46%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-10 vs. LAC), GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs. BKN) 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BKN-GSW (o/u at 224)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, BOSTON, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, OKLAHOMA CITY 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – INDIANA ML, DETROIT ML, BOSTON ML, MEMPHIS ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS ML, BROOKLYN ML

These last four NBA betting trend systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-IND, TOR-DET, LAC-BOS, NYK-DEN, BKN-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-DEN
UNDER – DAL-ATL, POR-MEM

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-CHA, LAC-BOS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #16: Majority Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 106-71 (59.9%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BKN-GSW

Schedule situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 138-92 SU BUT 101-126-3 ATS (44.5%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
11/25: Fade ATLANTA vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3 vs. DAL) 

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 61-41 SU and 66-35-1 ATS (65.3%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
11/25: OKLAHOMA CITY at Sacramento
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4 at SAC) 

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 57-41 SU but 41-57 ATS (41.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/25: Fade ATLANTA vs. Dallas
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3 vs. DAL) 

* OVER the total was 82-70 (53.9%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
11/25: Over the total in BROOKLYN-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-GSW (o/u at 224)

* OVER the total was 36-28 (56.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/25: Over the total in BOSTON-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-BOS (o/u at 217) 

* Over the total was 32-22 (59.3%) over last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
11/25: Over the total in ATLANTA-DALLAS
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-ATL (o/u at 237)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 32-73 SU and 40-62-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
11/25: Fade CHARLOTTE vs. Orlando
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+6 vs. ORL)

* DALLAS was 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
11/25: DALLAS at Atlanta
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 at ATL) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 16-23 SU and 10-29 ATS skid in its last 39 tries playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/25: Fade LA CLIPPERS at Boston
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+10 at BOS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 137-47 SU and 110-73-1 ATS (60.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (*if they fall into this line range vs LAC, -10 currently*) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 96-63 SU and 94-62-3 ATS (60.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range at DET, +5 currently*) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 184-34 SU but just 99-116-3 ATS (46%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-10 vs LAC), GOLDEN STATE (-12.5 vs BKN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 90-77 (53.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 162-141 (53.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 231-170 (57.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAC-BOS (o/u at 217.5), POR-MEM (o/u at 232), BKN-GSW (o/u at 224)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 52-85 SU and 55-77-5 ATS (41.7%) slide, including 26-46-3 ATS in the last 75 games and 17-33 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+3.5 at ATL) 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 204-119 SU, but 144-173-6 ATS (45.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 29-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs. DAL), MEMPHIS (-10.5 vs. POR)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 246-131 SU but just 159-206-12 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 vs LAC) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 257-200 SU but 198-247-12 ATS (44.5%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 36-63 ATS.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs NYK) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 242-254 SU and 221-269-6 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4 vs. NYK) 

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 258-246 SU and 226-265-11 ATS (46%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. LAC) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 123-92 SU and 120-91-4 ATS (56.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+10.5 at MEM)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 96-17 SU but 50-61-3 ATS (45%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-10.5 vs. LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.5% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (169-188 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (227-220 ATS, 50.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+6.5 at IND)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+3.5)
2. TORONTO +5 (+3.0)
3. DALLAS +2.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10.5 (+3.9)
2. DENVER -4 (+2.1)
3. INDIANA -7 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND +10.5 (+3.9)
2. LA CLIPPERS +10.5 (+2.1)
3. TORONTO +5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -13 (+1.6)
2. DENVER -4 (+1.0)
3. INDIANA -7 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-CHA OVER 213 (+2.2)
2. BKN-GSW OVER 224 (+1.1)
3. TOR-DET OVER 220.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-MEM UNDER 232 (-2.4)
2. OKC-SAC UNDER 224 (-1.4)
3. NOP-IND UNDER 225 (-1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TORONTO +5 (+3.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +4.5 (+3.3)
3. DALLAS +2.5 (+3.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOSTON -10.5 (+6.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE -13 (+1.5)
3. INDIANA -7 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-DET OVER 220.5 (+3.4)
2. NOP-IND OVER 225 (+3.1)
3. LAC-BOS OVER 217.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). POR-MEM UNDER 232 (-4.9)
NYK-DEN UNDER 232 (-4.9)
3. DAL-ATL UNDER 237 (-0.9)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) ORLANDO at (514) CHARLOTTE
* ORLANDO has won six of last seven ATS versus rival Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS 

(515) NEW ORLEANS at (516) INDIANA
* Home teams are 6-0-1 in the last seven of the NOP-IND series
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS 

(517) TORONTO at (518) DETROIT
* DETROIT has won seven straight ATS when playing at home vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(521) LA CLIPPERS at (522) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 12-1-1 ATS in the LAC-BOS nonconference series since 2018
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS 

(523) PORTLAND at (524) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 of the POR-MEM series (including seven straight covers for PORTLAND on the road at Memphis)
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS 

(529) OKLAHOMA CITY at (530) SACRAMENTO
* SACRAMENTO is 6-0-1 ATS when hosting OKC since 2021
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

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