The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, October 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* OVER the total is 12-1-1 in L14 of ATL-OKC series at Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY OVER the total in ATL-OKC (o/u at 229.5)

-NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 117-86 SU & 115-85-3 ATS (57.5%) since ‘21.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs ATL), GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs LAC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-8.5 vs PHI), PORTLAND (+6 vs NOP), MILWAUKEE (-9 at BKN)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 35-22 SU & 38-19 ATS in its L57 road games when playing on standard OneDayRest

System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 at IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-9 at BKN)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing a HOME UNDERDOG in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 39-24 ATS record (61.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 63 games was only 3.0% of the total sample size.

System Matches (PLAY): PORTLAND (+6 vs NOP)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (+6 vs NOP)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs ATL)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-8.5 vs PHI), PORTLAND (+6 vs NOP), MILWAUKEE (-9 at BKN)

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for NUMBER OF BETS majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and a R.O.I. of +4.8% since January ’23.

System Matches (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

No qualifying plays today.

* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-32 SU & 19-42-1 ATS skid when playing on standard OneDayRest

System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-9 at BKN)

* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 35-22 SU & 38-19 ATS in its L57 road games when playing on standard OneDayRest

System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+8.5 at IND)

* PORTLAND is 23-59 SU & 29-53 ATS since ’20-21 when playing at home on OneDayRest

System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+6.5 vs NOP)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 173-32 SU but just 89-113-3 ATS (44.1%) over the last three seasons.

System Matches (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs ATL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 84-69 (54.9%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 158-132 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 226-154 (59.5%).

System Matches (PLAY OVER): ATL-OKC (o/u at 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 253-196 SU but 194-243-12 ATS (44.4%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 35-62 ATS.

System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs LAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 267-217 (55.2%) since 2021.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-IND (o/u at 228.5), ATL-OKC (o/u at 229.5)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 240-235 SU & 212-250-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the L4 seasons.

System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs LAC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well

15) NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 159-133 SU & 165-119-8 ATS (58.1%) run.

System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs LAC)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 117-86 SU & 115-85-3 ATS (57.5%) since ‘21.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10 vs ATL), GOLDEN STATE (-9 vs LAC)

17) Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 149-54 SU & 115-86-2 ATS (57.2%) over the last 4 seasons.

System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-9 at BKN)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +9 (+1.9)

2. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+1.1)

3. PORTLAND +6 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -9 (+1.0)

2. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BROOKLYN +9 (+7.5)

2. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+1.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -10 (+1.4)

2. NEW ORLEANS -6 (+0.7)

3. GOLDEN STATE -9 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LAC-GSW OVER 221 (+0.9)

2. ATL-OKC OVER 229.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-BKN UNDER 229 (-2.0)

2. NOP-POR UNDER 220 (-1.3)

3. PHI-IND UNDER 228.5 (-0.9)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA +8.5 (+2.5)

2. BROOKLYN +9 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
ATL-OKC OVER 229.5 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIL-BKN UNDER 229 (-4.4)

2. PHI-IND UNDER 228.5 (-3.4)

3. NOP-POR UNDER 220 (-2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) PHILADELPHIA at (502) INDIANA

* OVER the total is 6-0 in L6 meetings and on extended OVER run of 12-2 in L14 for h2h PHI-IND series

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228.5)

(503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) PORTLAND

* UNDER the total has hit in L7 h2h meetings at Portland

System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 220)

(507) ATLANTA at (508) OKLAHOMA CITY

* OVER the total is 12-1-1 in L14 of ATL-OKC series at Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 229.5)

(509) LA CLIPPERS at (510) GOLDEN STATE

* OVER the total is 4-1 in L5 h2h meetings of LAC-GSW rivalry

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221.5)

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